Sessions most like 2026-08-03, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: The dividing line in this group is the level price is holding at the cutoff: the sessions that carried on never traded meaningfully back beneath it, while those that unwound traded through it and stayed under into the afternoon. With the high set moments before the cutoff, watch whether that level is defended or given up.
What binds these sessions is not the size of the morning range — the match selects for that — but how little of it came back. They were still holding most of the morning's move at the cutoff, where a typical session has given back far more by this hour. Today sits at the firm end on range, and at the top of the group for how much of the day's average the morning has already claimed; the pullback so far is middling inside this cohort, and slight only against the broader record. Participation is where today parts company: ordinary by the full-record standard, while most of these analogs were running lighter than usual.
These pressed ahead after the cutoff and never traded meaningfully back. The afternoon dip barely dented the morning's work and the close came near the best of the session.
These probed a little further at most, then rotated back through the cutoff level and worked either side of it for the rest of the day. Whatever the swings in between, price finished close to where the morning had already put it.
Any push higher here came to nothing, and the afternoon was spent giving the morning back — closing well below where the drive had left price rather than near the high. The deepest of them broke through the session's earlier low.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 — today | 0.00 | 66.8 | 0.86 | 1.01 | 9% | 11% | in progress | |||||
| 2024-04-03 | 0.43 | 35.0 | 0.86 | 0.88 | 5% | 6% | -0.40 | +0.04 | -0.89 | — | — | |
| 2025-04-02 | 0.62 | 94.5 | 0.66 | 1.14 | 5% | 11% | +0.13 | +0.44 | -0.26 | YES | — | |
| 2023-08-29 | 0.62 | 44.0 | 0.83 | 1.01 | 2% | 6% | +0.52 | +0.59 | -0.01 | YES | — | |
| 2023-01-23 | 0.64 | 58.5 | 0.65 | 1.23 | 23% | 24% | -0.05 | +0.31 | -0.37 | YES | — | |
| 2022-10-28 | 0.69 | 70.2 | 0.68 | 1.43 | 16% | 18% | +0.54 | +0.62 | -0.05 | YES | — | |
| 2025-02-04 | 0.79 | 54.8 | 0.71 | 0.81 | 2% | 15% | -0.05 | +0.06 | -0.47 | YES | — | |
| 2025-09-11 | 0.85 | 40.5 | 0.67 | 0.91 | 4% | 24% | +0.04 | +0.23 | -0.20 | YES | — | |
| 2023-07-18 | 0.90 | 30.2 | 0.60 | 0.79 | 18% | 19% | +0.64 | +0.86 | -0.08 | YES | — | |
| 2026-01-12 | 0.91 | 48.0 | 0.71 | 0.79 | 11% | 13% | +0.20 | +0.40 | -0.04 | YES | — | |
| 2023-10-10 | 0.92 | 47.8 | 0.58 | 1.07 | 7% | 14% | -0.40 | +0.18 | -0.45 | YES | — | |
| 2024-01-04 | 0.99 | 32.0 | 0.65 | 0.88 | 11% | 15% | -1.05 | +0.05 | -1.14 | — | YES | |
| 2025-09-22 | 1.01 | 40.5 | 0.48 | 0.69 | 13% | 21% | +0.46 | +0.58 | -0.12 | YES | — | |
| cohort low | 30.2 | 0.48 | 0.69 | 2% | 6% | -1.05 | +0.04 | -1.14 | ||||
| cohort median | 47.8 | 0.67 | 0.91 | 11% | 15% | +0.13 | +0.40 | -0.20 | ||||
| cohort high | 94.5 | 0.86 | 1.43 | 23% | 24% | +0.64 | +0.86 | -0.01 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 10/12 | 1/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
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