Mountain Frog Research

Every read, newest first

One read per session, published pre-open. Same structure every time: what the auction did, what it is trying to do, how well it is doing it, and what it is likely to do next.

№ 037 Wed 23 Sep 2026 ES written 08:12 ET Buyers own Monday's ground, but yesterday's buyers are underwater Monday's initiative move lifted value 1.5 ATR out of the 10–17 Sep bracket, and yesterday held that value in a range a third of normal width. Buyers hold the territory. But yesterday they paid up hard at the 7840s and got nothing, and the overnight has traded under their session low. The read leans long through a probe: a dip below 7810.50 into Monday's value that is reclaimed above 7839.00. Acceptance under 7793.75 turns it over. 7822.75
№ 036 Tue 22 Sep 2026 ES written 08:16 ET Open on the low, high at 3:30, and 15,400 sold into it for nothing Price is 7838.75, 5.25 over yesterday's close and 8.50 under its high. Yesterday opened on its low, never traded below the opening period and closed 14.50 under its high, moving control 123.25 points to 7835.75 and leaving the morning in the window's upper acceptance area near 7843. The read leads long because the selling that fought the last three hours bought nothing and has had no better price to cover at since. The primary waits for acceptance above the 28 Aug high at 7850.25. The alternate is a sweep of that same level that fails back under the overnight low. 7838.75
№ 035 Mon 21 Sep 2026 ES written 08:49 ET The night did Friday's work: 57 points through the wall to the window's control Price is 7769.50, 57.00 over Friday's close and on the window's control at 7757.75, the lower of its two acceptance areas. The night took last week's high, the 20 Aug value low and the window's control in one run on positive delta, and it is holding 1.75 under its high. Sellers still own the weekly table. The read leads long because the sellers who are under water are the ones nearest the market, with nothing scheduled to cover into. The primary waits for acceptance above 7787.50. The alternate is a chase through 7777.75 that fails back under 7757.75. 7769.50
№ 034 Fri 18 Sep 2026 ES written 08:22 ET The wall held a second session, and the night went over it and came back Price is 7712.50, on the top of a six-session balance at 7711.75 and just inside the window's value low at 7708.00. Yesterday's session was 35.75 points wide, all of it in the first hour, and it decided nothing. The night went through the week's high to 7739.25 and came back. The read leads long because the sellers who own every larger frame are the ones under water closest to the market. The primary waits for acceptance above 7732.75, where the night already failed. The alternate is the week's high taken out and lost through 7694.25. 7712.50
№ 033 Thu 17 Sep 2026 ES written 08:17 ET The post-Fed break was bought back inside the hour, and the night took the rest Price is 7694.50, a full ATR above yesterday's close and back at the price the Fed break started from. The read leads long, but not from here: the primary waits for acceptance above 7712.00, the low of the 35-session value area, because the 17.50 points between the morning and that price hold six separate references and are where yesterday's sellers either cover or don't. The alternate is the mirror — yesterday's high at 7699.00 taken out and then lost back through 7680.00, which traps whoever chased it, into 7661.75 and 7649.00. Sellers still hold every frame above the daily. What they no longer hold is the last hour of the session that made the low. 7694.50
№ 032 Wed 16 Sep 2026 ES written 08:19 ET Accepted under the floor, then the night took the whole session back Price is 7683.75, 27.75 over yesterday's close and inside Monday's value, 0.75 under the price yesterday's session opened and sold from. The read leads short again: sellers hold every zoom above the daily, yesterday accepted value under the floor, and the reclaim is overnight and thin. The primary is Monday's value low lost through 7665.00, back into yesterday's value and toward the untested 28 May low. The alternate is acceptance above Monday's value high at 7703.00, which traps the 14,433 net that sold yesterday's low, into the window's value low. 7683.75
№ 031 Tue 15 Sep 2026 ES written 08:33 ET Sold at the window's value edge, and the floor went overnight Price is 7681.75, 11.00 under Monday's close and inside Monday's value. The read leads short: sellers hold every zoom, every buyer with a position to unwind is above the market, and last night was the floor's first break since Thursday built it. The primary is Monday's low lost through 7661.25, into the overnight low and the 28 May low. The alternate is acceptance above Monday's value high at 7703.00, into the window's value low, where Monday's rally stopped 1.75 short. 7681.75
№ 030 Mon 14 Sep 2026 ES written 08:19 ET Sunday opened under everything Friday built Price is 7611.50, 48.00 under Friday's close and 2.00 above Thursday's value high. The read leads short: sellers hold every zoom, the only cohort that has to act is trapped above the market, and nothing is committed below it. The alternate is acceptance above the overnight high at 7634.50, which starts a fill toward Friday's value low, where Friday's buyers get out flat and the branch ends. 7611.50
№ 029 Fri 11 Sep 2026 ES written 08:17 ET The overnight filled Thursday's gap Price is 7639.50, at Wednesday's value low, after an overnight rally of 41.00 points on a delta of −2,439. The read leads short: the reclaim stopped under every value low the window holds, value has stepped down four sessions running, and this week's buyers, 29,726 net and 123.50 points underwater, get out flat exactly here. The alternate is acceptance above 7657.00, which puts the week back inside the window's value. 7639.50
№ 028 Thu 10 Sep 2026 ES written 08:15 ET A shelf held on borrowed money Price is 7630.50, a point above the shelf that held Wednesday and again overnight. The read leads short, because the buyers defending it have added 32,420 contracts across three sessions and are 111.00 points worse off. The alternate is the sweep that finally traps someone: Wednesday's 11:00 period sold 3,698 into the low, the first short cohort this decline has made. 7630.50
№ 027 Wed 9 Sep 2026 ES written 08:13 ET Bought all the way down Price stands at 7650.00, below everything Tuesday traded and below the 29-session window's value low. Buyers have financed the whole decline: Tuesday accumulated +21,195 and got the low at 3:45, and the overnight added +983 for another 30.50 points down. The read leads short toward last week's floor, and discounts the fade because the sellers who would have to fund it were never there. 7650.00
№ 026 Tue 8 Sep 2026 ES written late 08:05 ET The seam between two shelves Price opens on the seam between the composite's two acceptance areas, and two consecutive cohorts of buyers have already paid to find out which one it visits. Friday's afternoon and the overnight both bought heavily and were handed worse prices. The read leads short toward the lower shelf near 7686, with objectives that stop there. 7703.25
№ 025 Fri 4 Sep 2026 ES written 08:13 ET One session put value back in the upper node ES is 7755.00, unchanged on the overnight and 20.00 under the composite's control at 7775.00. Thursday relocated value from the month's lower acceptance area to its upper one in a single move, crossing the thin ground around 7710.00 without stopping. What it did not do is buy anything: three sessions have gained 55.75 points on roughly 21,900 of net selling. Above the market sit three weeks of descending highs, and the primary's objectives are on that line. 7755.00
№ 024 Thu 3 Sep 2026 ES written 08:13 ET This time the absorption reclaimed something ES opens at 7677.00, two points under the 20 August complex low at 7679.00 and inside Wednesday's 13.75-point value area. That value, 7672.75 to 7686.50, does not touch Tuesday's 7633.25 to 7659.50 — the same non-overlapping relocation that took the market down on 1 September, run in reverse. Control rose 35.00 points. The session's low was its 9:30 bar and nothing ever got under it. What holds the read back is Globex: 7694.50 traded, above Wednesday's cash high, and came straight back to unchanged. Buyers reclaimed the territory and then declined to extend it. 7677.00
№ 023 Wed 2 Sep 2026 ES written 08:13 ET Absorbed at the low, and still nothing reclaimed ES opens at 7647.50, inside Tuesday's value area and 0.54 ATR below the 20 August complex low at 7679.00. Monday's compression resolved downward: control fell 42.00 points to 7644.00 and the entire value area, 7633.25 to 7659.50, sits below Monday's 7680.00 low edge. That is relocation, not a pullback. The counter-evidence is real and worth pricing — the cash session opened 7647.00 and closed 7646.00 against -10,801 delta, the last 75 minutes rose 24.50 points while delta made new lows, and the overnight probe of the poor low at 7618.50 was refused. None of it reclaimed anything. Sellers hold the territory; buyers hold a low they have not yet turned into a reference. 7647.50
№ 022 Tue 1 Sep 2026 ES written 08:12 ET The floor gave in the dark ES opens the month at 7652.50, 46.50 points and 0.75 ATR under Monday's close, having spent the overnight session trading through 7655.00. The 27–31 August push to 7782.50 is now fully undone: control slid 36 points on Monday, the best bid of the day was hit with a 7,518-contract sell into the 3:45 high, and Globex finished the job. Sellers hold the near term. First supply is 7674.75 to 7686.00, and 7679.00 is the price that separates a break from an inventory flush. 7652.50
№ 021 Mon 31 Aug 2026 ES written 08:12 ET The break paid by 10:45 and was gone by 12:15 Friday made 7782.50 in the first ninety minutes and spent the rest of the session giving it back: control down 19.75 to 7722.00, value 35.50 points wide against a five-session average of 20.25, close at 0.14 of range. From 12:30 to the bell, fourteen periods took +4,548 of net buying and moved price 3.00 points lower. Globex continued it — 7683.75 at the low, 19.00 beneath the 27 August excursion floor, on +2,565 of delta — and the last trade is 7703.75, one point above that floor and back inside the 20–26 August value area. Two sessions of buying now hold price 21.75 lower than where the buying started. The read leads short, into the balance rather than through it. 7703.75
№ 020 Fri 28 Aug 2026 ES written 08:13 ET Value moved 51.75 points and left no overlap behind it The 20–26 August balance ran 7655.00 to 7720.00 with control at 7690.00. Thursday left it: value 7720.50–7745.25, control up 51.75 to 7741.75, 24.75 points wide against a five-session average of 16.30, on the week's heaviest volume — and its low sits 22.75 points above the prior session's value high with no overlap at all. The session low was the first fifteen-minute print, range extension ran 25.25 up and nothing down, and the 1:00 PM high at 7755.50 was sold into hard and still closed 14.50 below. Overnight did nothing: 7727.25–7747.50, last 7742.50, delta −227. The read leads long, on the balance sellers rather than on the strength of the bid. 7742.50
№ 019 Thu 27 Aug 2026 ES written 08:12 ET Twelve thousand contracts of selling, and a point and a quarter to show for it The 20–26 August balance ran 7655.00 to 7720.00 with its point of control at 7690.00, and over the last three sessions of it sellers pushed 12,759 contracts of net delta through and got 1.25 points of downside. Wednesday made its session high at 3:00 PM on three consecutive periods of negative delta — a bid absorbing, not a bid buying. Overnight the auction went 33.00 points above the prior close, 0.45 ATR, and is trading 7723.00, above the 7719.75 ceiling. That is a probe, not yet acceptance. What is overhead is a pocket the summer never priced: the window's two acceptance areas sit at 7771.13 and 7805.78, and the first real inventory above here is the 4–12 August value low at 7746.50. The read leads long on the trapped cohort, not on the strength of the bid. 7723.00
№ 018 Wed 26 Aug 2026 ES written 08:14 ET They sold all afternoon and it closed higher Three sessions have attacked the floor of this range and each has cost more for less. Tuesday was the clearest: cumulative delta ran from +2,826 at 11:45 to −6,186 at the close, and price rose across that stretch to finish 7691.25, 28.00 above the 7663.25 low. Control rose 16.75 to 7686.75, the first higher control since 19 August, and the whole value area moved up with it. Territory is still bearish — both composite acceptance areas, 7771.13 and 7805.78, are overhead and untouched. But the 13 August excursion has stopped being an excursion. It is a four-session balance now, 7671.75 to 7702.50, and price opens 0.50 above its own control with a high-impact print at 08:30. 7687.25
№ 017 Tue 25 Aug 2026 ES written 08:15 ET The break happened. Nobody got paid. Monday did what yesterday's read asked for and paid nothing for it. Price traded 7655.00 — through the three-week shelf and onto the lip of a band the 36-session window holds no volume in — then extended 0.00 points below an initial balance that was 88.1% of the whole 31.50-point range, and closed 7669.50 on −9,790 of net selling. Globex has bought +4,431 and trades 7704.50, above every price those sellers hit. Control is still falling — 7723.75 to 7670.00 in five sessions — and both composite acceptance areas, 7771.13 and 7805.78, sit overhead. Territory is bearish. Positioning, this morning, is not. 7704.50
№ 016 Mon 24 Aug 2026 ES written 09:21 ET Friday bought the shelf and got twenty-two points for it Friday was the bull case's best session in a week: +6,097 delta, no downside range extension at all, and a fourth successful defence of the 7656.00–7661.25 shelf. It produced a 22.25-point close, a value area 15.75 points wide — 0.39 of Thursday's — and a high at 7714.00 that has already been rejected again overnight. Control has fallen 99.25 points in five sessions to 7695.00, price sits 33.25 under the 4–12 August balance floor at 7710.00, and everything built since 13 August is overhead: 6,382,327 contracts, control 7804.00, 127.25 points above last trade. Below 7657.75 the window holds nothing traded since 2 July. 7676.75
№ 015 Fri 21 Aug 2026 ES written 08:15 ET The overnight bid is walking price back to Thursday's seller Thursday settled 7662.50 at 0.05 of range with its low in the 15:45 period, 176.00 points under the 13 August record. Overnight bought 32.00 of that back on +2,938 delta and put price inside Thursday's value again, under its 7703.75 control. The rally is walking into the one price already tested: buyers pressed +7,594 cumulative delta into 7710.00–7720.00 on Thursday morning, bought 3.75 points of range extension with it, and were 54.75 points offside by the bell. Everything traded since 13 August — 5,492,030 contracts, control 7804.00 — is still overhead, and below 7657.75 the window is empty to about 7638. 7694.50
№ 014 Thu 20 Aug 2026 ES written 08:14 ET Everything traded since 13 August is now above the market Overnight sold 7733.00 to 7694.50 on −5,474 delta — more net selling than all of Wednesday's session — taking out 7710.00 and Wednesday's 7698.25 low. That puts last trade beneath every contract of the 13–19 August excursion: 4,386,762 of them, control at 7804.00. Value fell three straight sessions into 18 August, 7823.00 to 7723.75, and Wednesday's 13.00-point uptick came on −3,525 delta and a close at 0.46 of range. Below 7694.75 the window is thin to 7656.00 and empty from about 7654 to 7638. The 08:30 ET releases decide whether 7694.50 is a floor or a shelf. 7696.00
№ 013 Wed 19 Aug 2026 ES written 08:13 ET Value fell three sessions, and below 7710 the map goes blank The 13 August record at 7838.50 was the top of a three-session excursion that has been unwinding ever since: point of control 7823.00, then 7803.00, then 7794.25, with Monday's value broadening as it fell and the close landing at 0.03 of range. Monday made its high in the opening fifteen minutes, extended 25 points down and none up, and printed its low on the last period. Trade since that close has carried another 49.75 points, to the lower edge of the 4–12 August balance. The 2,356,740 contracts done between 7766.25 and 7838.50 are now supply on every rally; below 7710.00 the composite offers no reference until 7604.04. 7715.75
№ 012 Tue 18 Aug 2026 ES written 08:44 ET Sellers finally got paid, and it cost them 1,892 contracts Monday broke the 4–12 August complex VAH at 7795.75 in the opening period and never traded above it again: high 7809.50 at 9:30, no extension above the initial balance, low 7766.00 in the last period. It cost sellers 1,892 net contracts, and RTH cumulative delta had been +5,678 at 10:15. The buyers who lifted those offers are the trapped side now. Overnight extended to 7716.50 and bounced to 7738.50. 7738.50
№ 011 Mon 17 Aug 2026 ES written late 09:35 ET Sellers spent three sessions and 21,827 contracts to lose 57 points Price sits 191.25 points — 2.17 ATR — above the value area of the window that began 11 June, and 14 points above the upper edge of the 4–12 August balance it left last Thursday. It got there on selling. The last two weeks added 285.75 points close-to-close while cumulative delta ran −23,485 then −34,920; the last three sessions added 57.50 points against −21,827. Friday looked weak on the surface — lower POC, narrower value, close at 0.24 of range — but the afternoon spent 2,388 contracts of net aggressive selling below 7807 and made no new low. Long until 7795.75 gives way. 7809.75
№ 010 Fri 14 Aug 2026 ES written 08:12 ET The break paid, and the sellers are still short it The seven-session August balance resolved upward and value went with it. Thursday opened 7793.25, took every price above it and topped at 7838.50 in the 10:30 period, then spent six hours going nowhere while cumulative delta fell to −7,507 and price refused to follow. The point of control moved +49.75 to 7823.00 on the widest value area in five sessions. The overnight has held a 10.75-point band on the highs. Price is 7828.75, 0.36 ATR above the ceiling that capped seven sessions. The lean stays up; above 7838.50 there is no reference at all. 7828.75
№ 009 Thu 13 Aug 2026 ES written 08:11 ET CPI printed, and the value area got narrower The August balance has coiled instead of resolving. Wednesday's value area was 9.75 points wide — 49% of the five-session average, 28% of Tuesday's — and it nests entirely inside Tuesday's. Four straight points of control sit in a 9.75-point band. Sellers have spent −47,936 since 4 August and hold no ground they did not start with. Price is at 7782.00, the top of the coil, 16.00 under the line that has capped it since 5 August. The lean stays up; it pays above 7798.00 and nowhere else. 7782.00
№ 008 Wed 12 Aug 2026 ES written 08:15 ET Two acceptance areas, and price is living in the newer one The 5 June window is not one auction, it is two: acceptance at 7615.00 and a second, newer area near 7766.00. Price has lived in the upper one since 4 August and has never given it back. Sellers have spent −38,770 in that span to move value nowhere. Tuesday made the point twice over — a 30.75-point down close that raised its point of control 8.25 to 7783.00. The lean stays up. But nothing in this read pays until 7798.00 goes, and the print at 08:30 is what decides whether it is tested at all. 7770.75
№ 007 Tue 11 Aug 2026 ES written 08:14 ET Five sessions, each narrower than the last, and a ceiling now rejected twice The 4–10 August complex has done one thing five times: contract. Value areas of 75.75, 50.00, 22.75, 20.00 and 12.75 points, on volume that has fallen every session. Aggressive sellers spent −26,012 in that span and the market closed 20.00 higher than it opened them. Monday poked 2.25 through the ceiling at 7795.75 and gave it straight back. The lean is up because the trapped inventory is all on one side — but nothing here pays until that price is taken, and the likeliest single outcome today is a sixth session that takes nothing. 7781.25
№ 006 Mon 10 Aug 2026 ES written 08:56 ET Value finally moved with the flow, and the record is thirty-six points away Three sessions of heavy aggressive selling carried this market up. Friday’s buying did too, and moved value with it: the point of control rose 39.25, the value area shares nothing with Thursday’s, and delta turned positive for the first time in four sessions. What the buyers have not done is make the market bigger — 43.25 points of range, 20.00 of value. The bias is up, and it does not pay until 7820.25, the record made and rejected on 5 August, is through. 7783.75
№ 005 Fri 7 Aug 2026 ES written 09:22 ET The heaviest selling of the advance bought sixteen points, and the night took all of it back Three sessions of relentless aggressive selling have moved this market up 115.75 points. Thursday was the clearest instance: more selling than Wednesday, in a range 62% the size, closing at 42% of it instead of 5%, with the low set in the eleventh period of twenty-seven and fifteen periods after it unable to touch it. That is a cohort paying more each session for less ground, which is what being absorbed looks like from the aggressor’s side. The overnight — which contains the 08:30 releases — has put price 24.00 above Thursday’s value-area high and 9.00 above Wednesday’s point of control. The bias is higher, and it asks for 7795.75 to prove it, because the one thing genuinely on the sellers’ side is that Thursday’s value did move down. 7774.75
№ 004 Thu 6 Aug 2026 ES written late 10:58 ET The record was made in the opening print, and sold for the rest of the day The first genuine seller of this run arrived on Wednesday, with the exact signature this publication named a day earlier: price and order flow in the same direction, and every point of range extension below the initial balance. What he did not do is move value. The point of control fell 8.25 points, Wednesday’s value-area high printed 10.00 above Tuesday’s, and 40.00 of the 50.00-point value area overlaps Tuesday’s. So the bias turns lower, but conditionally — it needs 7745.00 to go. While the shelf holds, a retest of the 7820.25 record is the live alternative. 7759.75
№ 003 Wed 5 Aug 2026 ES written 08:05 ET Six hours of absorption, then twelve of covering Buyers hold everything and there is no reference left above price. Tuesday was a trend day that absorbed aggressive sellers for six hours; the overnight is the aligned leg that absorption was always going to produce. The read stays long, but with projections instead of targets — and the line is the overnight low at 7771.00. 7799.50
№ 002 Tue 4 Aug 2026 ES written 08:15 ET Four sessions up, and the first genuine supply is 18 points away Buyers hold everything and price is in discovery above six weeks of value. The advance runs on absent supply rather than initiative, which resolves upward until a seller actually appears. 7629.00 is the line; the first real shelf overhead is the 28 May – 4 Jun balance starting at 7672.75. 7655.00
№ 001 Mon 3 Aug 2026 ES written 08:49 ET Three days took back nine days of losses — on falling aggression Buyers hold territory tactically, but on falling aggression into a dense reference shelf at 7562.5–7567.75. A large trapped-short cohort from the late-July breakdown is the fuel; 7546 is the line that decides whether the gap is real. 7563.75

A read like this, before every session

The pre-market read is published pre-open. Same structure every time: what the auction did, what it is trying to do, how well it is doing it, and what it is likely to do next.

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