Sessions most like 2026-08-05, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: Watch how the next push under the morning low trades — whether it draws fresh supply and keeps going, or is bought straight back with a rejection tail. Watch too whether trade stays heavy into the early afternoon or thins out, and whether the faded bounce can reclaim the volume-weighted average.
These are sessions that topped early, gave the opening push back, and came to the cutoff sitting closer to the low of the day than the high, with whatever bounce they had already fading. The match selected them on that shape, so the shape is not the interesting part — what separates them is what the afternoon did with it. Today's daily range gauge sits toward the wide end of the group, yet its initial balance is tighter than the group's and tighter than a normal session's, so the give-back has come from steady drift rather than an opening flush. Participation is running above the corpus norm, and today's best bounce reached further than any in the cohort had by this point — but most of it has been given back, leaving what it still holds about typical for the group.
The dip under the cutoff low was bought back in full, and from that point the buyer had the rest of the day. Each finished above where price stood at the cutoff, the strongest of them running a long way up.
These carried on the way the morning was pointing: the cutoff low gave way, bounces died quickly, and the close landed below where the day sat when the match was taken.
Price broke down hard after the cutoff — the deepest give-ups in the group outside the trending seller — and then the low held and was bought back steadily, so the close came in level with the cutoff. On the chart they read as a washout followed by a slow grind back, not a trend.
The afternoon added little in either direction; where a leg did develop it was downward and it was retraced, leaving the close within a whisker of the cutoff. Range stayed compressed relative to the morning that produced it.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 — today | 0.00 | 68.8 | 0.37 | 1.20 | 16% | 46% | in progress | |||||
| 2025-01-14 | 0.64 | 65.2 | 0.48 | 1.17 | 16% | 44% | +0.22 | +0.48 | -0.39 | — | YES | |
| 2025-10-22 | 0.66 | 50.5 | 0.54 | 1.28 | 6% | 44% | -0.00 | +0.39 | -0.92 | — | YES | |
| 2025-07-31 | 0.76 | 39.2 | 0.60 | 1.17 | 25% | 29% | -1.08 | +0.55 | -1.41 | — | YES | |
| 2026-07-08 | 0.78 | 75.8 | 0.30 | 0.94 | 11% | 22% | +0.69 | +0.82 | -0.06 | YES | YES | |
| 2023-10-13 | 0.79 | 48.5 | 0.48 | 1.47 | 15% | 16% | -0.12 | +0.26 | -0.48 | — | YES | |
| 2023-09-26 | 0.82 | 34.0 | 0.85 | 1.14 | 2% | 23% | -0.28 | +0.35 | -0.53 | — | YES | |
| 2024-08-22 | 0.86 | 59.8 | 0.46 | 0.78 | 3% | 15% | -0.49 | +0.15 | -0.69 | — | YES | |
| 2024-08-26 | 0.88 | 59.8 | 0.41 | 0.82 | 16% | 39% | +0.03 | +0.18 | -0.27 | — | YES | |
| 2025-10-07 | 0.88 | 46.5 | 0.39 | 1.02 | 12% | 42% | -0.03 | +0.05 | -0.35 | — | YES | |
| 2024-07-30 | 0.89 | 50.2 | 0.51 | 1.36 | 18% | 28% | -0.04 | +0.32 | -0.73 | — | YES | |
| 2024-04-01 | 0.91 | 36.8 | 0.43 | 0.88 | 29% | 30% | +0.02 | +0.20 | -0.31 | — | YES | |
| 2023-05-31 | 0.92 | 38.0 | 0.74 | 1.46 | -0% | 23% | +0.44 | +0.76 | -0.01 | — | YES | |
| cohort low | 34.0 | 0.30 | 0.78 | -0% | 15% | -1.08 | +0.05 | -1.41 | ||||
| cohort median | 50.2 | 0.48 | 1.17 | 15% | 29% | -0.00 | +0.35 | -0.39 | ||||
| cohort high | 75.8 | 0.85 | 1.47 | 29% | 44% | +0.69 | +0.82 | -0.01 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 1/12 | 12/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
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