Sessions most like 2026-08-07, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: The tell is behaviour at that pre-cutoff high — whether it is taken and held with give-backs that stay shallow and above the morning's value, or whether the push through it draws immediate supply and price loses value on the way back. Worth watching too is where the volume shows up, on the extension or on the give-back, and whether the morning low comes back into play — that is where the faders separated from the grinders.
What links these sessions is not how far price travelled but how little of it came back: each worked away from the open and then held, sitting near the session extreme with only a token pullback at a point in the day when the broader corpus had typically given back much more. Today matches that shape — the give-back so far is trivial against the corpus yardstick and the deepest pullback of the morning sits at the shallow end of even this group, though slightly more has come back than most of the cohort had shown by this hour. Where today stands apart is the mix: the daily range is running wider than the corpus median while participation is lighter than a typical session, and the high was printed in the minutes right before the cutoff, so the drive is fresh rather than aging. The initial balance sits toward the wide end of what this cohort carried.
These kept going after the cutoff and finished in the upper part of the day's range, with the give-backs along the way staying shallow and the morning low holding. The push higher was the dominant move of the session rather than a last gasp.
These poked to fresh highs and then went nowhere, oscillating through the afternoon and closing near where they stood at the cutoff. The drive neither resumed in earnest nor unwound.
Each squeezed out a marginal new high after the cutoff and then rolled over, working lower for the rest of the day and closing beneath the cutoff price. The reversal was orderly and the morning low held.
The marginal high above the cutoff was the last of the buying: price turned hard and broke back through the morning low. The worse of them stayed pinned near its lows into the bell, handing back more than the whole morning drive and then some, while the other clawed much of the damage back yet still finished clearly below the cutoff.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 — today | 0.00 | 74.0 | 0.50 | 0.93 | 8% | 15% | in progress | |||||
| 2025-06-03 | 0.26 | 63.5 | 0.33 | 0.73 | 6% | 18% | +0.18 | +0.33 | -0.03 | YES | — | |
| 2026-01-05 | 0.40 | 51.0 | 0.44 | 0.97 | 11% | 15% | -0.18 | +0.16 | -0.30 | YES | — | |
| 2022-11-08 | 0.45 | 71.8 | 0.39 | 1.08 | 5% | 20% | -0.29 | +0.15 | -0.88 | YES | YES | |
| 2023-06-08 | 0.45 | 35.5 | 0.46 | 1.17 | 1% | 19% | +0.25 | +0.38 | -0.15 | YES | — | |
| 2023-07-17 | 0.45 | 30.2 | 0.35 | 0.70 | 5% | 21% | +0.15 | +0.52 | -0.12 | YES | — | |
| 2024-06-10 | 0.53 | 34.5 | 0.31 | 0.67 | 0% | 18% | +0.38 | +0.47 | -0.06 | YES | — | |
| 2023-12-18 | 0.60 | 28.0 | 0.40 | 0.84 | 11% | 28% | +0.02 | +0.36 | -0.03 | YES | — | |
| 2025-01-17 | 0.62 | 67.2 | 0.30 | 1.03 | 17% | 20% | -0.18 | +0.09 | -0.21 | YES | — | |
| 2023-09-22 | 0.65 | 31.8 | 0.46 | 1.04 | 2% | 36% | -1.11 | +0.07 | -1.24 | YES | YES | |
| 2022-11-10 | 0.66 | 74.2 | 0.66 | 1.68 | 3% | 25% | +0.51 | +0.57 | -0.25 | YES | — | |
| 2024-11-08 | 0.67 | 45.5 | 0.31 | 0.67 | 6% | 13% | +0.08 | +0.38 | -0.12 | YES | — | |
| 2025-05-06 | 0.70 | 116.0 | 0.34 | 0.77 | 5% | 19% | -0.25 | +0.15 | -0.30 | YES | — | |
| cohort low | 28.0 | 0.30 | 0.67 | 0% | 13% | -1.11 | +0.07 | -1.24 | ||||
| cohort median | 51.0 | 0.39 | 0.97 | 5% | 20% | +0.08 | +0.36 | -0.15 | ||||
| cohort high | 116.0 | 0.66 | 1.68 | 17% | 36% | +0.51 | +0.57 | -0.03 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 12/12 | 2/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
Charts rendered with Lightweight Charts™, Copyright © 2026 TradingView, Inc. (Apache-2.0).