Sessions most like 2026-08-10, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: What separates these paths shows up in the tape, not in advance: whether the give-back holds at the level the morning broke from or slices through it, whether a retest of the earlier high arrives on heavier participation or on the same thin volume that carried the push, and whether price picks a side of VWAP instead of drifting across it as it is now.
These sessions share a shape rather than a direction: a move away from the open that set its extreme before the cutoff, then a give-back that had already retraced most of it by the time the clock stopped — the shape the search is selecting for, not a discovery. Today's version is the widest-ranging of the set: recent daily range sits above the widest analog here and above the corpus median, so the same normalized give-back covers more ground in points. It is also the quietest of them: participation is below a typical session and toward the light edge of the cohort, and the opening balance is narrow measured against the day's own volatility — a big-range backdrop trading a slow morning. The give-back itself is ordinary for this group, near the middle of it now and at its deepest less severe than most of these days saw.
The give-back never stopped. Price cut through the morning low into fresh session lows during the afternoon, and the closes finished down — mostly near those lows.
The morning push was pausing, not finished. Price took the earlier high back and kept going, absorbing dips without losing the drive, and closed at the firm end of the day's range.
These also traded above the morning high after the cutoff, but the follow-through did not hold. Some dipped again first, and the closes ended up only modestly better than where the cutoff found them.
Neither side got anywhere. Price rotated to either side of the cutoff price without a push that held — a session here clipped a marginal new low before coming back — and the closes finished near where the morning left off.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 — today | 0.00 | 68.8 | 0.29 | 0.63 | 55% | 75% | in progress | |||||
| 2025-09-15 | 0.60 | 42.0 | 0.32 | 0.45 | 52% | 60% | +0.14 | +0.16 | -0.25 | — | YES | |
| 2024-05-29 | 0.63 | 33.5 | 0.48 | 1.02 | 51% | 78% | -0.07 | +0.25 | -0.25 | — | — | |
| 2023-06-06 | 0.75 | 38.0 | 0.43 | 1.08 | 55% | 90% | +0.16 | +0.30 | -0.24 | YES | — | |
| 2025-02-10 | 0.76 | 50.8 | 0.42 | 0.70 | 76% | 96% | +0.08 | +0.24 | -0.23 | YES | — | |
| 2024-03-18 | 0.79 | 37.2 | 0.48 | 0.97 | 54% | 85% | -0.46 | +0.00 | -0.59 | — | YES | |
| 2023-11-01 | 0.81 | 55.0 | 0.53 | 1.17 | 56% | 63% | +0.42 | +0.57 | -0.24 | YES | — | |
| 2023-07-12 | 0.84 | 31.5 | 0.48 | 1.07 | 80% | 87% | -0.17 | +0.04 | -0.56 | — | YES | |
| 2025-07-11 | 0.85 | 41.2 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 59% | 101% | +0.04 | +0.37 | -0.07 | YES | — | |
| 2024-08-27 | 0.90 | 59.8 | 0.48 | 0.80 | 50% | 50% | +0.12 | +0.21 | -0.16 | — | — | |
| 2023-03-02 | 0.94 | 46.8 | 0.39 | 1.14 | 50% | 55% | +0.89 | +1.08 | -0.05 | YES | — | |
| 2023-08-31 | 0.97 | 46.0 | 0.29 | 0.77 | 65% | 106% | -0.39 | +0.04 | -0.42 | — | YES | |
| 2023-02-10 | 0.98 | 58.0 | 0.53 | 1.34 | 56% | 102% | +0.20 | +0.28 | -0.28 | YES | — | |
| cohort low | 31.5 | 0.29 | 0.45 | 50% | 50% | -0.46 | +0.00 | -0.59 | ||||
| cohort median | 46.0 | 0.48 | 1.02 | 56% | 87% | +0.12 | +0.25 | -0.24 | ||||
| cohort high | 59.8 | 0.67 | 1.34 | 80% | 106% | +0.89 | +1.08 | -0.05 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 6/12 | 4/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
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