Sessions most like 2026-08-12, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: Watch the opening high and the morning low as the edges of the question — the analogs that went somewhere either retook that high or broke that low outright, while those that went nowhere kept probing and failing at each edge without clearing it. Watch participation beside that: whether volume arrives with a push, or the tape stays as thin as it has been since the open.
What ties these sessions together is a high printed early and never bettered, then a morning spent working away from it into a recovery that ran out of steam. Today sits inside that shape, though at the heavier end of the volatility range and the lighter end of the participation range — turnover is running under what the wider history treats as normal for this much of the session. Its bounce off the low has not reached as far as most of the analogs had mustered by the same point, and the morning's balance is roomier than most of the cohort yet still tighter than a typical session, so the range on offer is modest against the daily ATR this market is carrying.
These repaired the morning slide after the cutoff and kept what they took, though some dipped to fresh lows before the lift took hold. The close stayed well above where the cutoff found them, up near the day's upper edge.
These poked into fresh ground after the cutoff — fresh lows, with a fresh high in the mix — but nothing stuck, and each push got reclaimed about as fast as it printed. Excursions stayed cramped in each direction and price finished within a whisker of where it sat at the cutoff.
These broke the morning low with a real push lower before doing anything else, then spent the remainder of the session climbing back out of it. The damage came first and the repair took the rest of the day, leaving the close near the cutoff.
Each of these pushed higher first, clearing the morning high, before rolling over and handing the move back to finish below where price stood at the cutoff. The deepest of them kept going and closed on the session low.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 — today | 0.00 | 68.8 | 0.44 | 0.75 | 33% | 57% | in progress | |||||
| 2025-06-30 | 0.22 | 47.5 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 31% | 56% | +0.32 | +0.61 | -0.26 | YES | YES | |
| 2024-09-18 | 0.45 | 59.2 | 0.31 | 0.55 | 35% | 73% | -0.27 | +1.00 | -0.36 | YES | YES | |
| 2025-12-04 | 0.46 | 87.0 | 0.37 | 0.98 | 38% | 76% | +0.13 | +0.17 | -0.23 | — | YES | |
| 2022-11-18 | 0.47 | 70.2 | 0.51 | 0.99 | 39% | 49% | +0.08 | +0.21 | -0.36 | — | YES | |
| 2025-05-12 | 0.48 | 86.8 | 0.44 | 1.07 | 42% | 72% | +0.46 | +0.48 | -0.10 | YES | — | |
| 2022-11-02 | 0.51 | 71.8 | 0.28 | 0.84 | 29% | 56% | -1.09 | +0.86 | -1.10 | YES | YES | |
| 2024-03-13 | 0.51 | 39.2 | 0.37 | 0.93 | 26% | 78% | +0.01 | +0.34 | -0.38 | YES | YES | |
| 2025-10-28 | 0.52 | 50.0 | 0.41 | 0.67 | 18% | 66% | +0.30 | +0.69 | -0.14 | YES | YES | |
| 2024-10-24 | 0.58 | 45.5 | 0.33 | 0.75 | 23% | 66% | +0.12 | +0.28 | -0.46 | — | YES | |
| 2023-06-21 | 0.63 | 38.0 | 0.49 | 1.07 | 54% | 66% | -0.11 | +0.45 | -0.19 | YES | — | |
| 2023-09-11 | 0.66 | 44.0 | 0.48 | 0.80 | 45% | 57% | +0.28 | +0.32 | -0.12 | — | — | |
| 2024-06-06 | 0.68 | 34.5 | 0.32 | 0.80 | 33% | 70% | +0.04 | +0.07 | -0.54 | — | YES | |
| cohort low | 34.5 | 0.28 | 0.55 | 18% | 49% | -1.09 | +0.07 | -1.10 | ||||
| cohort median | 50.0 | 0.37 | 0.84 | 35% | 66% | +0.12 | +0.45 | -0.26 | ||||
| cohort high | 87.0 | 0.51 | 1.07 | 54% | 78% | +0.46 | +1.00 | -0.10 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 7/12 | 9/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
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