Sessions most like 2026-08-13, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: The morning low is the visible fork: sessions that resumed higher lifted away without needing to retest it, while those that kept selling traded through it and could not reclaim it afterward. Worth watching alongside that is where the volume shows up — on the probe lower or on the recovery — and whether the afternoon's initial push away from VWAP is accepted or immediately faded.
What these sessions share is shape rather than size: the high arrived early, and by the cutoff a good part of the morning excursion had been given back, leaving price under VWAP instead of pressing the extreme. Today is further unwound at this hour than a typical morning in the corpus, and it sits toward the more-unwound end of its own matches. Where it clearly steps outside the group is participation — volume is running under the corpus norm and lighter than most of these analogs, which were busier sessions than this. The volatility backdrop is wider than the corpus median, so the same proportional give-back covers more ground in points than an ordinary day would.
These turned back up out of the retrace without conceding much further ground, cleared the morning high, and finished toward the strong end of the day. The give-back proved to be a pause in the move, not the end of it.
The unwinding simply carried on: price worked lower through the afternoon into a fresh session low and closed well below where the cutoff found it. Attempts higher never got back much above the cutoff level.
Neither the morning high nor the morning low gave way. Price rotated back toward the middle and closed close to where the cutoff found it, with no sustained push in either direction.
This session broke the morning low, found buyers underneath it, and reversed hard enough to take out the morning high before the close. It made the widest round trip in the group and still finished up on the day.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 — today | 0.00 | 68.8 | 0.75 | 0.89 | 72% | 77% | in progress | |||||
| 2024-10-25 | 0.64 | 45.0 | 0.68 | 0.81 | 66% | 73% | -0.78 | +0.06 | -1.01 | — | YES | |
| 2023-08-11 | 0.69 | 34.8 | 0.98 | 1.09 | 77% | 83% | +0.29 | +0.48 | -0.08 | — | — | |
| 2026-01-06 | 0.86 | 51.0 | 0.62 | 0.95 | 62% | 88% | +0.55 | +0.65 | -0.09 | YES | — | |
| 2025-10-15 | 0.88 | 50.5 | 0.84 | 1.10 | 75% | 77% | -0.51 | +0.03 | -1.77 | — | YES | |
| 2025-06-23 | 0.89 | 53.0 | 0.90 | 0.67 | 57% | 59% | +0.71 | +0.80 | -0.87 | YES | YES | |
| 2025-02-12 | 0.90 | 48.8 | 0.79 | 1.15 | 66% | 78% | +0.57 | +0.82 | -0.01 | YES | — | |
| 2025-08-14 | 0.98 | 44.0 | 0.52 | 0.83 | 82% | 95% | +0.37 | +0.53 | -0.16 | YES | — | |
| 2024-06-28 | 1.05 | 38.2 | 0.97 | 1.15 | 81% | 98% | -0.93 | +0.15 | -1.25 | — | YES | |
| 2025-01-27 | 1.06 | 62.8 | 0.74 | 1.47 | 64% | 68% | +0.49 | +0.52 | -0.07 | YES | — | |
| 2022-10-20 | 1.18 | 74.2 | 0.78 | 1.57 | 50% | 60% | -0.67 | +0.15 | -0.78 | — | YES | |
| 2023-12-05 | 1.22 | 29.5 | 0.73 | 1.49 | 56% | 86% | +0.12 | +0.18 | -0.36 | — | — | |
| 2023-11-01 | 1.25 | 55.0 | 0.53 | 1.17 | 56% | 63% | +0.42 | +0.57 | -0.24 | YES | — | |
| cohort low | 29.5 | 0.52 | 0.67 | 50% | 59% | -0.93 | +0.03 | -1.77 | ||||
| cohort median | 50.5 | 0.78 | 1.15 | 66% | 78% | +0.37 | +0.52 | -0.24 | ||||
| cohort high | 74.2 | 0.98 | 1.57 | 82% | 98% | +0.71 | +0.82 | -0.01 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 6/12 | 5/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
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