Sessions most like 2026-08-14, as of 11:45 ET
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 — today | 0.00 | 68.8 | 0.25 | 0.67 | 7% | 11% | in progress | |||||
| 2023-04-04 | 0.54 | 60.0 | 0.33 | 1.26 | 15% | 26% | -0.00 | +0.09 | -0.25 | — | YES | |
| 2026-05-27 | 0.71 | 61.0 | 0.35 | 0.99 | 3% | 39% | +0.34 | +0.43 | -0.07 | — | YES | |
| 2025-03-26 | 0.76 | 94.8 | 0.40 | 0.92 | 5% | 29% | -0.36 | +0.01 | -0.52 | — | YES | |
| 2024-04-30 | 0.83 | 65.8 | 0.21 | 0.95 | 7% | 23% | -0.64 | +0.13 | -0.64 | — | YES | |
| 2025-09-23 | 0.86 | 42.2 | 0.24 | 0.65 | 27% | 35% | -0.61 | +0.03 | -0.94 | — | YES | |
| 2025-04-28 | 0.89 | 128.5 | 0.31 | 0.82 | 14% | 35% | +0.25 | +0.36 | -0.21 | — | YES | |
| 2024-10-24 | 0.92 | 45.5 | 0.33 | 0.75 | 4% | 20% | +0.25 | +0.41 | -0.33 | — | YES | |
| 2023-10-11 | 0.92 | 47.8 | 0.38 | 0.95 | 5% | 22% | +0.42 | +0.48 | -0.24 | YES | YES | |
| 2025-07-07 | 0.94 | 42.8 | 0.38 | 0.63 | 5% | 38% | -0.22 | +0.15 | -0.90 | — | YES | |
| 2023-01-19 | 0.94 | 53.8 | 0.39 | 1.26 | 2% | 33% | +0.27 | +0.70 | -0.01 | YES | YES | |
| 2022-12-05 | 0.96 | 53.5 | 0.63 | 0.94 | 12% | 26% | -0.42 | +0.05 | -0.70 | — | YES | |
| 2026-01-28 | 0.96 | 46.0 | 0.40 | 0.72 | 2% | 25% | +0.13 | +0.32 | -0.20 | — | YES | |
| cohort low | 42.2 | 0.21 | 0.63 | 2% | 20% | -0.64 | +0.01 | -0.94 | ||||
| cohort median | 53.8 | 0.38 | 0.94 | 5% | 29% | +0.13 | +0.32 | -0.25 | ||||
| cohort high | 128.5 | 0.63 | 1.26 | 27% | 39% | +0.42 | +0.70 | -0.01 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 2/12 | 12/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 33% | 59% | +0.06 | +0.28 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 53% | 47% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:45 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:45, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
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