Sessions most like 2026-08-17, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: What separated these groups was behaviour at the early high, which price has already ground back near: whether trade is accepted above it, or it gets rejected there and the morning low then gives way — tagging the high was not enough by itself, since a session that poked through it still broke hard afterwards. The other thing to watch is pace: whether the tape stays as thin as it has been, or the afternoon brings the participation the morning has lacked.
These sessions share a shape rather than a size: the high arrived early, the session sold away from it, and by the cutoff price had ground most of the way back — a further-along repair than the corpus typically shows by this hour. Today fits that shape closely, with its high printed almost at the bell and price resting on its own volume-weighted average. Where today sits apart is pace and backdrop: volume is lighter than any session in the group and lighter than the corpus norm, while the volatility regime is wider than the widest of them, so the range built so far is a modest fraction of what this market has been moving. Today has also not pushed its recovery as far at its best as most of the cohort had by the same point.
These carried the repair straight through the early high and kept going, closing near the best levels of the afternoon. Very little was given back once the high went, and the session never revisited the midday level in any real way.
Here the recovery died at or just through the early high and the morning's selling resumed, breaking well beneath the midday level to a new session low. They lifted off the worst of it late but still closed under where they were trading at the cutoff.
This session gave the repair up hard, making a new low well beneath the midday level, then bought the entire decline back and finished above where it stood at the cutoff. The damage was real while it lasted and left almost no trace on the close.
These poked at the early high, in most cases through it, but the move refused to build on itself. Each excursion was given back rather than accepted, and the close landed near the level price was already trading at midday.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 — today | 0.00 | 68.8 | 0.27 | 0.62 | 65% | 77% | in progress | |||||
| 2023-06-21 | 0.47 | 38.0 | 0.49 | 1.07 | 54% | 66% | -0.11 | +0.45 | -0.19 | YES | — | |
| 2025-07-23 | 0.49 | 39.2 | 0.51 | 0.63 | 58% | 65% | +0.87 | +0.88 | -0.09 | YES | — | |
| 2024-03-22 | 0.53 | 36.8 | 0.29 | 0.66 | 63% | 65% | -0.14 | +0.24 | -0.22 | YES | YES | |
| 2023-10-12 | 0.53 | 47.8 | 0.44 | 1.11 | 59% | 95% | -0.51 | +0.26 | -1.04 | YES | YES | |
| 2023-04-11 | 0.54 | 48.0 | 0.20 | 0.82 | 69% | 91% | -0.01 | +0.29 | -0.11 | YES | — | |
| 2023-06-12 | 0.56 | 35.5 | 0.28 | 0.88 | 68% | 89% | +0.92 | +0.94 | +0.01 | YES | — | |
| 2025-10-31 | 0.58 | 50.0 | 0.57 | 0.92 | 54% | 91% | -0.34 | +0.22 | -0.91 | — | YES | |
| 2023-11-17 | 0.59 | 44.0 | 0.27 | 0.94 | 53% | 95% | +0.24 | +0.38 | -0.06 | YES | — | |
| 2023-05-25 | 0.60 | 45.5 | 0.53 | 1.40 | 53% | 97% | +0.23 | +0.57 | -0.23 | YES | — | |
| 2024-09-10 | 0.62 | 57.8 | 0.54 | 0.97 | 68% | 78% | +0.22 | +0.29 | -0.71 | YES | YES | |
| 2024-04-02 | 0.63 | 35.0 | 0.58 | 1.09 | 66% | 75% | +0.40 | +0.42 | -0.21 | YES | — | |
| 2025-10-06 | 0.68 | 46.5 | 0.48 | 0.76 | 80% | 89% | +0.10 | +0.30 | -0.03 | YES | — | |
| cohort low | 35.0 | 0.20 | 0.63 | 53% | 65% | -0.51 | +0.22 | -1.04 | ||||
| cohort median | 45.5 | 0.49 | 0.94 | 63% | 89% | +0.22 | +0.38 | -0.19 | ||||
| cohort high | 57.8 | 0.58 | 1.40 | 80% | 97% | +0.92 | +0.94 | +0.01 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 11/12 | 4/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
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