Sessions most like 2026-08-19, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: The tell is in how attempts are treated, not in how the morning looked: whether a push away from the midday area is accepted, with trade building at the new level and pullbacks holding, or handed straight back into the range that has held since the morning high. The other marker is the level the morning advance began from, and whether it turns attempts back or gets accepted and used as a floor.
What these sessions share is not how far they travelled before the cutoff but that the travel stopped counting: each drove to a morning extreme and then gave the advance back, so by late morning the day was sitting where it started instead of where it had been. That round trip is far deeper than a typical morning produces by this hour, and it is the property the match is keying on. Today sits mid-pack for volatility inside this group, but its tape is busier than most of these days ran, closer to ordinary participation than to the quiet drift many of them had. Its initial balance is also narrower against its own daily range than the cohort's middle.
The afternoon bid these back up and away from where the cutoff found them, and the close came near the upper end of the day rather than in the middle of it. Adverse travel below the cutoff stayed minor, so the morning round trip read in hindsight as a reset rather than a top.
Attempts away from the midday area in either direction did not stick, and the close landed near where the cutoff had found them. The afternoon range stayed inside ground the morning had already covered, so whatever the day decided, it decided before lunch.
These kept pressing after the cutoff and closed toward the weak end of the session, cutting a fresh low along the way. The deeper of them printed fresh extremes on either side of the midday area before finishing down there, a whipsaw rather than a steady bleed.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 — today | 0.00 | 65.0 | 0.39 | 1.04 | 132% | 150% | in progress | |||||
| 2023-09-14 | 0.44 | 37.0 | 0.45 | 1.11 | 130% | 150% | +0.24 | +0.43 | -0.13 | YES | — | |
| 2025-11-25 | 0.66 | 85.0 | 0.65 | 1.36 | 142% | 150% | +0.54 | +0.69 | -0.02 | YES | — | |
| 2024-01-24 | 0.75 | 36.2 | 0.41 | 0.99 | 109% | 150% | -0.72 | +0.23 | -0.81 | YES | YES | |
| 2024-12-26 | 0.77 | 35.5 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 150% | 150% | +0.13 | +0.49 | -0.12 | YES | — | |
| 2022-11-22 | 0.77 | 63.2 | 0.36 | 0.79 | 150% | 150% | +0.40 | +0.43 | -0.09 | YES | — | |
| 2025-02-05 | 0.77 | 52.0 | 0.50 | 0.83 | 128% | 135% | +0.56 | +0.61 | -0.03 | YES | — | |
| 2025-12-22 | 0.78 | 53.0 | 0.32 | 0.75 | 150% | 150% | +0.00 | +0.13 | -0.09 | YES | — | |
| 2025-03-25 | 0.79 | 94.8 | 0.20 | 0.64 | 129% | 150% | -0.04 | +0.01 | -0.22 | — | YES | |
| 2024-04-08 | 0.84 | 34.5 | 0.47 | 0.78 | 131% | 150% | -0.23 | +0.06 | -0.49 | — | YES | |
| 2026-04-24 | 0.87 | 74.2 | 0.29 | 0.90 | 150% | 150% | +0.28 | +0.36 | -0.05 | YES | — | |
| 2022-11-03 | 0.88 | 71.8 | 0.57 | 1.52 | 106% | 150% | -0.10 | +0.34 | -0.11 | YES | — | |
| 2023-04-06 | 0.90 | 59.2 | 0.28 | 0.98 | 133% | 150% | +0.35 | +0.40 | -0.02 | YES | — | |
| cohort low | 34.5 | 0.20 | 0.63 | 106% | 135% | -0.72 | +0.01 | -0.81 | ||||
| cohort median | 59.2 | 0.45 | 0.90 | 133% | 150% | +0.24 | +0.40 | -0.09 | ||||
| cohort high | 94.8 | 0.68 | 1.52 | 150% | 150% | +0.56 | +0.69 | -0.02 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 10/12 | 3/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
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