Sessions most like 2026-08-21, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: The thing to watch is whether the level that stopped the retrace is accepted or rejected on the retest, and whether volume picks up while it happens — drift on the same thin tape looks different from a push that brings participation with it. Also worth watching as the lunch period ends: whether the morning high is revisited, or simply left behind.
What binds this group is a morning that settled nothing: a high close to where the day opened, then a slide that gave the move back, and each of them carried past where it began. Against the broader corpus that is the unusual part — the typical session still holds much of its morning travel at this hour, and these did not. Today sits mid-pack on how much has come back, but toward the modest end of the group on how far past the origin the pullback has reached. It also arrives lighter than a typical session on volume and on a wider daily range backdrop than most, which is a market covering ground with few hands behind it.
These pressed lower after the cutoff — any poke higher was marginal and brief — and closed near the day's low, the afternoon supplying the bulk of the range.
In these the retrace marked the low of the day: price turned back up through the morning high and closed near the top, so the afternoon carried the whole of the session's progress.
These leaked to marginal new session lows without any drive behind it — the afternoon push stayed contained and the close finished near the lows, a grind rather than a break.
These resolved nothing: price probed to either side of the cutoff level, and the poke in each direction was cancelled by the reverse, leaving the finish near where the afternoon began.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 — today | 0.00 | 61.0 | 0.32 | 0.80 | 95% | 121% | in progress | |||||
| 2023-10-27 | 0.60 | 58.8 | 0.37 | 1.54 | 88% | 117% | -0.54 | +0.01 | -0.81 | — | YES | |
| 2023-05-17 | 0.69 | 36.0 | 0.51 | 0.93 | 83% | 125% | +0.88 | +1.06 | -0.05 | YES | — | |
| 2026-01-15 | 0.72 | 47.5 | 0.33 | 0.94 | 112% | 133% | -0.55 | +0.13 | -0.76 | YES | YES | |
| 2023-10-31 | 0.75 | 57.5 | 0.37 | 1.11 | 77% | 122% | +0.44 | +0.49 | -0.09 | YES | — | |
| 2023-09-05 | 0.79 | 44.0 | 0.40 | 0.92 | 70% | 121% | -0.24 | +0.10 | -0.26 | — | YES | |
| 2026-05-07 | 0.86 | 60.5 | 0.27 | 0.88 | 89% | 150% | -0.55 | +0.12 | -0.86 | — | YES | |
| 2026-04-16 | 0.86 | 86.0 | 0.32 | 0.95 | 91% | 141% | +0.08 | +0.23 | -0.15 | YES | — | |
| 2025-01-16 | 0.92 | 67.2 | 0.44 | 1.18 | 71% | 109% | -0.26 | +0.07 | -0.36 | — | YES | |
| 2024-06-25 | 0.95 | 38.8 | 0.30 | 0.70 | 108% | 150% | +0.19 | +0.30 | -0.42 | YES | YES | |
| 2023-12-28 | 0.95 | 36.2 | 0.17 | 0.55 | 93% | 128% | +0.01 | +0.20 | -0.12 | YES | YES | |
| 2024-06-21 | 0.98 | 38.2 | 0.50 | 0.91 | 92% | 150% | -0.07 | +0.33 | -0.23 | YES | — | |
| 2026-04-10 | 0.99 | 86.0 | 0.22 | 0.88 | 100% | 150% | -0.23 | +0.02 | -0.33 | — | YES | |
| cohort low | 36.0 | 0.17 | 0.55 | 70% | 109% | -0.55 | +0.01 | -0.86 | ||||
| cohort median | 57.5 | 0.37 | 0.93 | 91% | 133% | -0.07 | +0.20 | -0.26 | ||||
| cohort high | 86.0 | 0.51 | 1.54 | 112% | 150% | +0.88 | +1.06 | -0.05 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 7/12 | 8/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
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