Sessions most like 2026-08-25, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: The observable split sits at the level where the retracement stalled: sessions rejected there, sometimes after a brief poke past it, went on to reclaim the given-back range; sessions that traded through and stayed through kept leaking; sessions that traded through and got bought back spent the afternoon on the mend; sessions that crossed it repeatedly without follow-through went nowhere. Worth watching too whether volume shows up behind a move away from this area or the move goes untraded, and whether the origin of the early push comes back into play.
What these mornings share is an early extreme and a long give-back: the high went in shortly after the bell, and the rest of the morning was spent unwinding it, leaving price deep inside the range at the cutoff — far deeper than a typical session in the corpus. Today matches that shape and sits at the quiet end of it, with volume running lighter than the corpus median and down at the bottom of the matched range, while daily range is ordinary rather than wide. Today's initial balance is narrower than most of the cohort, so the give-back has happened inside a smaller frame. Today also arrives at the cutoff still at its deepest retracement, having not yet bounced off it.
These stopped retracing and expanded in the direction of the original push, closing far from where they stood at the cutoff and giving back little after the move was underway. Some of that run began only after a brief poke below the cutoff area.
These carried the give-back well past the cutoff level before turning, then worked back through the afternoon and finished above where they stood at the cutoff. The downside excursion was the larger swing of the afternoon, so the recovery came late.
The retracement simply kept going. Bounces off the cutoff area were shallow and short-lived, and the close landed at or near the weakest part of the afternoon.
The give-back ran out near the cutoff and nothing replaced it — the afternoon traded across the same area in either direction and closed effectively where it started. Excursions stayed modest, and where a session poked past the edges of that area, neither side held what it took.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 — today | 0.00 | 53.0 | 0.40 | 0.69 | 72% | 75% | in progress | |||||
| 2022-10-05 | 0.40 | 94.8 | 0.40 | 1.39 | 67% | 77% | +0.49 | +0.73 | -0.04 | YES | — | |
| 2022-11-30 | 0.53 | 53.5 | 0.44 | 0.86 | 80% | 88% | +2.30 | +2.32 | -0.31 | YES | YES | |
| 2026-01-16 | 0.65 | 47.5 | 0.58 | 1.06 | 74% | 78% | -0.23 | +0.22 | -0.26 | — | — | |
| 2025-05-09 | 0.70 | 88.0 | 0.42 | 0.70 | 48% | 67% | -0.03 | +0.16 | -0.20 | — | — | |
| 2026-07-20 | 0.72 | 72.0 | 0.64 | 0.91 | 64% | 70% | -0.51 | +0.16 | -0.62 | — | YES | |
| 2023-09-12 | 0.77 | 44.0 | 0.32 | 0.73 | 68% | 76% | -0.16 | +0.41 | -0.31 | YES | YES | |
| 2024-02-06 | 0.80 | 36.5 | 0.64 | 0.97 | 85% | 95% | +0.20 | +0.22 | -0.33 | — | — | |
| 2023-05-24 | 0.84 | 45.5 | 0.48 | 1.32 | 47% | 77% | -0.02 | +0.35 | -0.30 | YES | YES | |
| 2024-01-12 | 0.89 | 37.0 | 0.74 | 1.24 | 50% | 59% | +0.03 | +0.22 | -0.33 | — | — | |
| 2025-01-08 | 0.89 | 63.0 | 0.45 | 1.20 | 75% | 96% | +0.19 | +0.39 | -0.48 | YES | YES | |
| 2023-02-22 | 0.90 | 49.8 | 0.52 | 1.21 | 74% | 96% | -0.08 | +0.42 | -0.41 | YES | YES | |
| 2026-01-14 | 0.90 | 47.5 | 0.87 | 1.31 | 60% | 64% | +0.30 | +0.35 | -0.64 | — | YES | |
| cohort low | 36.5 | 0.32 | 0.70 | 47% | 59% | -0.51 | +0.16 | -0.64 | ||||
| cohort median | 49.8 | 0.52 | 1.20 | 68% | 77% | +0.03 | +0.35 | -0.31 | ||||
| cohort high | 94.8 | 0.87 | 1.39 | 85% | 96% | +2.30 | +2.32 | -0.04 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 6/12 | 7/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
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