Sessions most like 2026-08-28, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: What separated the camps was whether progress above the morning high was kept or handed back, and whether the low of the earlier pullback stayed intact. Those are the levels to watch, along with whether participation picks up or thins as either is approached.
What links these sessions is posture rather than force: these arrived at the cutoff still parked near the morning high, having given back far less of the up move than a typical session has by that hour. Today matches that posture but got there by a different route — its worst pullback of the morning was deeper than most of the group ever saw, and the recovery from that dip is what has price back near the highs. Daily range is narrower than the median analog and narrower than the corpus norm, and volume is a shade above the corpus norm while sitting toward the quiet end of this group. The same shape is being carried on a lighter, tighter tape than the sessions it was matched to.
These kept working higher through the afternoon and gave little of it back. The close landed up near the session high rather than in the middle of the day's range.
These pushed well beyond the morning high after the cutoff and then leaked the whole of it away. They finished close to where they had been sitting at the cutoff, so the push showed up in the range but not in the close.
Neither side got traction after the cutoff. Pokes above the morning high made little headway and were given back, and the close sat near the cutoff price.
These lost the morning structure after the cutoff, traded back down through the cutoff level and closed under it. The weakest went on to take out the morning low and settle at the bottom of the day's range.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 — today | 0.00 | 44.0 | 0.77 | 1.10 | 10% | 42% | in progress | |||||
| 2026-06-24 | 0.65 | 69.8 | 0.51 | 1.19 | 6% | 41% | -0.94 | +0.04 | -1.28 | — | YES | |
| 2023-06-02 | 1.02 | 38.0 | 0.65 | 1.68 | 5% | 10% | +0.10 | +0.32 | -0.20 | YES | — | |
| 2023-09-28 | 1.02 | 34.5 | 0.70 | 1.29 | 1% | 15% | +0.07 | +0.58 | -0.24 | YES | — | |
| 2025-08-06 | 1.05 | 43.5 | 0.58 | 1.01 | 4% | 18% | +0.17 | +0.35 | -0.18 | YES | — | |
| 2025-11-24 | 1.05 | 73.0 | 0.58 | 1.21 | 7% | 11% | +0.10 | +0.28 | -0.15 | YES | — | |
| 2023-01-06 | 1.06 | 56.2 | 0.82 | 1.58 | 22% | 30% | +0.48 | +0.70 | -0.07 | YES | — | |
| 2026-07-24 | 1.08 | 66.8 | 0.40 | 1.09 | 12% | 18% | -0.56 | +0.17 | -0.80 | YES | — | |
| 2023-12-01 | 1.16 | 29.5 | 0.67 | 1.49 | 7% | 39% | +0.53 | +0.75 | -0.21 | YES | — | |
| 2026-06-04 | 1.22 | 55.5 | 0.52 | 0.85 | 3% | 16% | +0.23 | +0.45 | -0.20 | YES | — | |
| 2026-03-24 | 1.29 | 86.0 | 0.44 | 1.29 | 13% | 19% | -0.34 | +0.11 | -0.44 | YES | — | |
| 2024-04-05 | 1.31 | 34.5 | 0.71 | 1.22 | 7% | 46% | +0.16 | +0.78 | -0.25 | YES | — | |
| 2026-05-06 | 1.32 | 56.8 | 0.52 | 1.03 | 12% | 26% | +0.30 | +0.46 | -0.27 | YES | — | |
| cohort low | 29.5 | 0.40 | 0.85 | 1% | 10% | -0.94 | +0.04 | -1.28 | ||||
| cohort median | 56.2 | 0.58 | 1.22 | 7% | 19% | +0.16 | +0.45 | -0.21 | ||||
| cohort high | 86.0 | 0.82 | 1.68 | 22% | 46% | +0.53 | +0.78 | -0.07 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 11/12 | 1/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
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