Sessions most like 2026-09-02, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: The cleanest observable split is what the next pullback does: the sessions that carried on barely traded back down into the morning's value area, while those that faded dug deep into the morning's advance and kept working lower from there. Watch too whether afternoon ranges build above the cutoff high or merely overlap the morning's, and whether the heavier volume arrives on the pushes up or on the giveback.
What links these sessions is not their range — the match selects for that — but their posture into the cutoff: pushed up and away from the open, sitting near the highs, with much thinner pullbacks than the corpus shows by late morning. Today's volatility backdrop is at the quiet end of that group and under the corpus median, while participation is ordinary, sitting right at the corpus median, so this is not a thin-tape drift. Against the group itself today sits comfortably inside rather than at an edge: the giveback so far is about what these sessions were carrying at this hour, with today's high printed moments before the cutoff.
These carried the morning drive through the afternoon, with pullbacks that stayed brief and minor. They closed up near the strong end of the day's range.
These either poked marginally above the morning high or failed to make further upward progress, then rolled over and spent the afternoon unwinding the morning's advance. They closed well below where they stood at the cutoff, the deepest of them giving the morning's gains back in full.
These probed and came back, or slid and rebuilt, but ended the session close to where they were trading at the cutoff. The afternoon covered ground in each direction without settling anywhere new.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 — today | 0.00 | 43.2 | 0.91 | 0.99 | 3% | 14% | in progress | |||||
| 2026-06-26 | 0.66 | 73.0 | 1.04 | 0.90 | 0% | 17% | -0.83 | +0.26 | -0.99 | YES | — | |
| 2023-08-29 | 0.71 | 44.0 | 0.83 | 1.01 | 2% | 6% | +0.52 | +0.59 | -0.01 | YES | — | |
| 2024-04-03 | 0.74 | 35.0 | 0.86 | 0.88 | 5% | 6% | -0.40 | +0.04 | -0.89 | — | — | |
| 2023-01-23 | 0.88 | 58.5 | 0.65 | 1.23 | 23% | 24% | -0.05 | +0.31 | -0.37 | YES | — | |
| 2026-05-28 | 0.96 | 55.5 | 0.88 | 0.96 | 6% | 13% | +0.15 | +0.23 | -0.05 | YES | — | |
| 2023-06-15 | 0.99 | 38.0 | 0.92 | 1.22 | 1% | 12% | +0.51 | +0.85 | -0.18 | YES | — | |
| 2023-10-10 | 1.04 | 47.8 | 0.58 | 1.07 | 7% | 14% | -0.40 | +0.18 | -0.45 | YES | — | |
| 2026-08-03 | 1.11 | 66.8 | 0.86 | 1.01 | 9% | 11% | +0.38 | +0.52 | -0.01 | YES | — | |
| 2025-09-11 | 1.17 | 40.5 | 0.67 | 0.91 | 4% | 24% | +0.04 | +0.23 | -0.20 | YES | — | |
| 2025-02-04 | 1.19 | 54.8 | 0.71 | 0.81 | 2% | 15% | -0.05 | +0.06 | -0.47 | YES | — | |
| 2024-11-19 | 1.19 | 47.2 | 0.52 | 1.04 | 2% | 11% | +0.29 | +0.47 | -0.18 | YES | — | |
| 2024-08-08 | 1.23 | 65.8 | 0.96 | 1.29 | 15% | 16% | +0.42 | +0.53 | -0.19 | YES | — | |
| cohort low | 35.0 | 0.52 | 0.81 | 0% | 6% | -0.83 | +0.04 | -0.99 | ||||
| cohort median | 54.8 | 0.86 | 1.01 | 5% | 14% | +0.15 | +0.31 | -0.19 | ||||
| cohort high | 73.0 | 1.04 | 1.29 | 23% | 24% | +0.52 | +0.85 | -0.01 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 11/12 | 0/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
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