Sessions most like 2026-09-03, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: The first genuine pullback after the cutoff is the observable thing: whether it is bought back quickly around the morning breakout area with volume returning on the push, or whether it drags and price settles beneath VWAP. In this cohort the sessions that kept going mostly showed little give-back below the cutoff price, while those that faded pressed deeper beneath it.
What these sessions share is not the wide opening range — the matcher selects for that — but how cleanly they held the morning advance: pullbacks stayed brief, price stayed pinned toward the upper part of the day, and each went on to print a fresh high after the cutoff without printing a fresh low. Today sits at the tight edge of that group on retracement: the high was set right at the cutoff and price has barely stepped away from it, and the deepest give-back of the morning was milder than most of the cohort's and far milder than a typical corpus session. Volume is running heavier than the corpus norm though ordinary within this group, and the underlying range backdrop is quieter than the corpus median, sitting toward the quieter side of this cohort as well.
These pushed on through the afternoon and closed well above where they sat at the cutoff, holding a good part of the move they made. Give-back below the cutoff price was slight and brief where it appeared.
Each traded above the morning high, in some cases by a wide margin, then leaked back for the rest of the day. They finished between the cutoff price and their own afternoon peak, closer to flat than the push had promised.
These barely improved on the morning high before the drive gave way, then worked sideways to lower for the balance of the session. They finished near or beneath where they stood at the cutoff, with the day's weakest stretch coming after it.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 — today | 0.00 | 43.2 | 0.60 | 1.19 | 1% | 19% | in progress | |||||
| 2023-03-16 | 1.26 | 54.2 | 0.50 | 1.55 | 7% | 18% | +0.56 | +0.64 | -0.12 | YES | — | |
| 2023-09-28 | 1.68 | 34.5 | 0.70 | 1.29 | 1% | 15% | +0.07 | +0.58 | -0.24 | YES | — | |
| 2024-04-05 | 1.76 | 34.5 | 0.71 | 1.22 | 7% | 46% | +0.16 | +0.78 | -0.25 | YES | — | |
| 2023-06-02 | 1.76 | 38.0 | 0.65 | 1.68 | 5% | 10% | +0.10 | +0.32 | -0.20 | YES | — | |
| 2026-05-14 | 1.90 | 55.5 | 0.51 | 0.88 | 6% | 7% | -0.07 | +0.18 | -0.41 | YES | — | |
| 2026-02-09 | 1.96 | 56.5 | 0.82 | 0.88 | 2% | 8% | -0.14 | +0.22 | -0.20 | YES | — | |
| 2025-08-06 | 1.97 | 43.5 | 0.58 | 1.01 | 4% | 18% | +0.17 | +0.35 | -0.18 | YES | — | |
| 2024-02-02 | 1.97 | 36.5 | 0.58 | 1.22 | 8% | 34% | +0.37 | +0.87 | -0.20 | YES | — | |
| 2023-10-06 | 2.01 | 42.8 | 0.58 | 1.63 | 9% | 27% | +0.88 | +1.26 | +0.00 | YES | — | |
| 2026-08-04 | 2.05 | 67.0 | 0.75 | 1.10 | 7% | 8% | +0.57 | +0.90 | -0.03 | YES | — | |
| 2026-02-06 | 2.08 | 56.5 | 1.01 | 1.47 | 10% | 18% | +0.63 | +0.93 | -0.04 | YES | — | |
| 2024-11-19 | 2.15 | 47.2 | 0.52 | 1.04 | 2% | 11% | +0.29 | +0.47 | -0.18 | YES | — | |
| cohort low | 34.5 | 0.50 | 0.88 | 1% | 7% | -0.14 | +0.18 | -0.41 | ||||
| cohort median | 47.2 | 0.65 | 1.22 | 7% | 18% | +0.29 | +0.64 | -0.18 | ||||
| cohort high | 67.0 | 1.01 | 1.68 | 10% | 46% | +0.88 | +1.26 | +0.00 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 12/12 | 0/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
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