Sessions most like 2026-09-09, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: The separation between these paths shows up in observable form: whether the late-morning high just above the open is taken out or rejected on the attempt, whether the morning low holds when it is approached, and whether the pullback deepens past the depth it has held to so far. Volume building into the afternoon rather than draining away is the other marker worth tracking.
What these sessions share is a morning that had reached its extreme by the cutoff without surrendering much of it: the pullback from the extreme is slight next to a typical session in the corpus, and the extreme itself is still close at hand. Participation varied across the group, from thin to heavy, so volume is not the common thread, though the group's median runs heavier than the corpus norm. Today sits inside the group on the give-back but outside it on range, with a daily range narrower than any session in the cohort and narrower than the corpus median, making this the quietest tape of the set. Volume is running near the corpus median rather than the group's heavier middle, and the initial balance is toward the wide end of the cohort while unremarkable against the corpus at large.
These worked away from the cutoff price to the upside and closed toward the top of their afternoon range. Where they dipped beneath the cutoff price, the dip was recovered and left behind.
These gave up the cutoff price and pressed well beneath it through the rest of the session, closing near the bottom of their afternoon range. Attempts back upward after the cutoff were slight or absent.
Each made a genuine excursion after the cutoff, upward in most and downward in the rest, then came back and closed within a hair of where it stood at the cutoff. The move was there while it lasted, but the close kept no record of it.
This session went quiet after the cutoff, with travel in either direction staying tight and the close resting on the cutoff price. There was no excursion to give back.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 — today | 0.00 | 43.2 | 0.45 | 1.02 | 20% | 21% | in progress | |||||
| 2022-11-29 | 1.00 | 54.2 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 17% | 25% | +0.28 | +0.43 | -0.05 | — | — | |
| 2025-03-13 | 1.07 | 101.2 | 0.46 | 1.08 | 3% | 29% | -0.27 | +0.09 | -0.46 | — | YES | |
| 2025-12-02 | 1.08 | 87.0 | 0.22 | 1.16 | 15% | 40% | +0.17 | +0.33 | -0.08 | — | YES | |
| 2023-02-08 | 1.21 | 58.0 | 0.31 | 1.30 | 14% | 31% | -0.01 | +0.31 | -0.15 | — | YES | |
| 2024-10-21 | 1.33 | 45.0 | 0.24 | 0.83 | 5% | 12% | +0.66 | +0.68 | -0.05 | — | YES | |
| 2026-04-21 | 1.34 | 72.5 | 0.35 | 1.06 | 13% | 50% | -0.36 | +0.17 | -0.57 | — | YES | |
| 2026-05-27 | 1.42 | 61.0 | 0.35 | 0.98 | 32% | 34% | +0.19 | +0.27 | -0.22 | — | YES | |
| 2025-11-13 | 1.43 | 60.0 | 0.56 | 1.39 | 14% | 18% | -0.61 | +0.15 | -0.88 | — | YES | |
| 2023-01-18 | 1.45 | 53.8 | 0.33 | 1.30 | 10% | 20% | -0.72 | +0.00 | -0.77 | — | YES | |
| 2026-08-14 | 1.50 | 68.8 | 0.25 | 0.67 | 15% | 16% | +0.01 | +0.08 | -0.12 | — | YES | |
| 2023-01-05 | 1.51 | 57.0 | 0.53 | 1.24 | 17% | 26% | +0.02 | +0.43 | -0.07 | — | — | |
| 2023-04-04 | 1.54 | 60.0 | 0.33 | 1.27 | 19% | 26% | -0.03 | +0.07 | -0.28 | — | YES | |
| cohort low | 45.0 | 0.22 | 0.67 | 3% | 12% | -0.72 | +0.00 | -0.88 | ||||
| cohort median | 60.0 | 0.33 | 1.16 | 15% | 26% | +0.01 | +0.27 | -0.15 | ||||
| cohort high | 101.2 | 0.56 | 1.39 | 32% | 50% | +0.66 | +0.68 | -0.05 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 0/12 | 10/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
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