Sessions most like 2026-09-10, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: The dividing line among these sessions was whether the recovery could take the morning high back and hold above it, or faded beneath it and let the late-morning base give way. Watch the character of trade on the approach to that high — whether pullbacks get absorbed above the recovery low or come in easily — since that is where the groups above parted company.
The match pulled mornings that, like today, set an early high and then gave most or the whole of that push back before the cutoff — a far deeper round trip than a corpus-typical day — so that shape is what was selected for, not something these sessions teach. Volatility across the group runs from quiet to genuinely wide, and today sits toward the calmer side of it, a shade under the corpus norm, while participation is running a touch heavier than a corpus-typical session rather than lighter, as several of these were. Today's opening drive is wider than any of them carried, its high came early, and the give-back into the cutoff is less than most of the group was carrying at the same stage, the morning push having already round-tripped and part-recovered. The matched features have not improved on simple price position in validation, so the groups below describe how comparable mornings resolved and nothing more.
After the cutoff these resumed the morning direction and finished near the best of the afternoon push, keeping most of what they made rather than surrendering it into the close.
These also worked back above the morning high, including the widest afternoon runs in the group, but the closing print sat well beneath the peak. The late drive was handed back before the bell.
These worked meaningfully in each direction after the cutoff, poking above the morning high but also giving up ground beneath the cutoff price, and ended nearer the middle than at either edge.
These never took the morning high back. They leaked under the cutoff price and closed a shade below it, making no fresh ground in either direction — the flattest resolutions in the group.
This session made no further upward progress after the cutoff and instead traded down through the morning low, closing at the weak end of the day. It is the single downside resolution in the group.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 — today | 0.00 | 43.2 | 0.80 | 1.12 | 42% | 102% | in progress | |||||
| 2024-10-29 | 0.78 | 45.0 | 0.77 | 0.83 | 40% | 77% | +0.17 | +0.42 | -0.07 | YES | — | |
| 2023-02-10 | 0.84 | 58.0 | 0.53 | 1.34 | 56% | 102% | +0.20 | +0.28 | -0.28 | YES | — | |
| 2026-07-14 | 0.84 | 72.0 | 0.44 | 0.80 | 27% | 119% | -0.10 | +0.05 | -0.38 | — | — | |
| 2024-10-16 | 0.88 | 48.2 | 0.46 | 0.68 | 40% | 124% | +0.33 | +0.47 | -0.12 | YES | — | |
| 2023-06-28 | 0.89 | 34.5 | 0.38 | 1.15 | 32% | 79% | +0.14 | +0.41 | -0.44 | YES | — | |
| 2024-05-29 | 0.90 | 33.5 | 0.48 | 1.02 | 51% | 78% | -0.07 | +0.25 | -0.25 | — | — | |
| 2024-07-26 | 0.92 | 50.2 | 0.63 | 1.35 | 61% | 129% | +0.23 | +0.81 | -0.10 | YES | — | |
| 2024-08-16 | 0.92 | 62.8 | 0.39 | 0.75 | 42% | 90% | +0.25 | +0.38 | -0.04 | YES | — | |
| 2023-06-06 | 0.94 | 38.0 | 0.43 | 1.08 | 55% | 90% | +0.16 | +0.30 | -0.24 | YES | — | |
| 2024-03-18 | 0.95 | 37.2 | 0.48 | 0.97 | 54% | 85% | -0.46 | +0.00 | -0.59 | — | YES | |
| 2023-01-27 | 0.98 | 58.5 | 0.55 | 1.10 | 56% | 102% | +0.12 | +0.55 | -0.01 | YES | — | |
| 2023-06-22 | 0.99 | 38.0 | 0.65 | 0.94 | 57% | 98% | +0.45 | +0.47 | -0.12 | YES | — | |
| cohort low | 33.5 | 0.38 | 0.68 | 27% | 77% | -0.46 | +0.00 | -0.59 | ||||
| cohort median | 48.2 | 0.48 | 1.02 | 54% | 98% | +0.17 | +0.41 | -0.12 | ||||
| cohort high | 72.0 | 0.77 | 1.35 | 61% | 129% | +0.45 | +0.81 | -0.01 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 9/12 | 1/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
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