Sessions most like 2026-09-11, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: The next test of the morning high is the split: acceptance above it with a modest pullback is what the holders did, a sharp rejection back inside is what the faders did, and no test through the afternoon is the stayed-inside pattern. On a rejection, whether the sell-off holds above the late-morning low or cuts straight through it is what separated the faders from the sessions that swept the low.
These are sessions with a wide initial balance and an early high that was fully retraced by late morning; that shape is what the match selects on, not a finding. Within the set, today sits at the quiet end on daily range, below the corpus median as well, with an initial balance that is wide relative to that range and volume running above the corpus norm and near the middle of the cohort. Today has also recovered further back toward its morning high than most of the analogs had at this point. As a group the analogs went nowhere on net into the close, with a median finish close to the corpus median and the spread coming from which side of the morning range got tested.
Broke the morning high in the afternoon and accepted above it, with only a modest dip along the way, and finished higher than where they stood at the cutoff.
Pushed to a fresh high but could not hold it; the rejection carried price back through the late-morning area and they closed flat to lower without breaking the session low.
Made a new high, reversed, and went on to break the session low as well, closing weak or flat; the only camp to trade through the low.
Never tested either extreme; the afternoon chopped inside the morning range and closed a shade below the cutoff.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 — today | 0.00 | 39.2 | 0.57 | 1.13 | 26% | 150% | in progress | |||||
| 2025-10-13 | 0.70 | 48.8 | 0.72 | 1.26 | 20% | 132% | +0.06 | +0.41 | -0.21 | YES | — | |
| 2023-06-05 | 0.85 | 38.0 | 0.49 | 1.23 | 49% | 150% | -0.47 | +0.20 | -0.66 | YES | YES | |
| 2023-10-09 | 0.88 | 46.5 | 0.40 | 0.84 | 31% | 135% | +0.80 | +0.92 | -0.09 | YES | — | |
| 2026-05-22 | 0.89 | 78.2 | 0.48 | 0.80 | 14% | 150% | -0.29 | +0.13 | -0.38 | YES | — | |
| 2025-07-01 | 1.03 | 46.2 | 0.41 | 0.91 | 42% | 144% | +0.08 | +0.35 | -0.26 | YES | — | |
| 2024-01-30 | 1.13 | 36.2 | 0.28 | 0.73 | 32% | 129% | -0.06 | +0.16 | -0.28 | YES | YES | |
| 2024-11-26 | 1.18 | 51.2 | 0.31 | 0.86 | 12% | 150% | +0.21 | +0.35 | -0.09 | YES | — | |
| 2022-10-24 | 1.20 | 80.0 | 0.71 | 1.62 | 69% | 150% | +0.26 | +0.42 | -0.07 | YES | — | |
| 2023-07-19 | 1.20 | 30.2 | 0.45 | 1.06 | 43% | 134% | -0.22 | +0.21 | -0.47 | YES | YES | |
| 2023-08-30 | 1.23 | 46.0 | 0.63 | 1.09 | 54% | 140% | +0.11 | +0.26 | -0.11 | YES | — | |
| 2023-05-22 | 1.24 | 46.2 | 0.66 | 1.11 | 64% | 150% | -0.11 | +0.21 | -0.23 | — | — | |
| 2026-05-29 | 1.24 | 61.0 | 0.41 | 1.05 | 63% | 150% | -0.05 | +0.16 | -0.27 | — | — | |
| cohort low | 30.2 | 0.28 | 0.73 | 12% | 129% | -0.47 | +0.13 | -0.66 | ||||
| cohort median | 46.5 | 0.48 | 1.06 | 43% | 150% | +0.06 | +0.26 | -0.23 | ||||
| cohort high | 80.0 | 0.72 | 1.62 | 69% | 150% | +0.80 | +0.92 | -0.07 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 10/12 | 3/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
Charts rendered with Lightweight Charts™, Copyright © 2026 TradingView, Inc. (Apache-2.0).