Sessions most like 2026-09-14, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: Whether the bounce off the lows can reclaim the drive's midpoint and hold it, or whether the first push back toward the high is sold; and whether relative volume picks up toward the cohort's norm as the session goes on or stays as thin as the morning, since no analog traded this quietly at the cutoff.
The cohort is mornings whose opening drive ran out, reversed through the open, and then found a bid, so that by the cutoff price had climbed back inside the drive rather than staying below it. Their deep retrace and wide initial balance are what the matcher selects for, not a finding about them. Today's retrace sits near the centre of the group and its initial balance toward the wide end, but its range is at the quiet end of the cohort and its relative volume is lighter than the thinnest analog and far under the corpus norm. Its cousins were mostly busy mornings; this is not.
Turned the mid-morning bounce into a fresh push, printed a new session high and closed above the cutoff with only modest dips on the way.
Ran through the morning high and also through the morning low, in either order, so the session travelled a long way in each direction. Most of them still closed higher, but the path was violent and the close did not say much about the route.
The bounce at the cutoff faded, price went back below the open, took out the morning low and closed lower, with the upside from here capped early.
Neither extreme was tested; the rest of the day chopped inside the morning range and the close landed near where the cutoff left it.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 — today | 0.00 | 39.2 | 0.75 | 0.48 | 73% | 150% | in progress | |||||
| 2023-01-10 | 0.64 | 57.2 | 0.53 | 1.32 | 74% | 137% | +0.47 | +0.48 | -0.14 | YES | — | |
| 2022-10-24 | 0.77 | 80.0 | 0.71 | 1.62 | 69% | 150% | +0.26 | +0.42 | -0.07 | YES | — | |
| 2026-05-29 | 0.81 | 61.0 | 0.41 | 1.05 | 63% | 150% | -0.05 | +0.16 | -0.27 | — | — | |
| 2023-08-30 | 0.86 | 46.0 | 0.63 | 1.09 | 54% | 140% | +0.11 | +0.26 | -0.11 | YES | — | |
| 2024-06-26 | 0.92 | 38.8 | 0.43 | 0.72 | 74% | 150% | +0.40 | +0.59 | -0.08 | YES | — | |
| 2023-03-15 | 0.92 | 48.2 | 0.57 | 1.65 | 78% | 150% | +0.70 | +0.70 | -0.53 | YES | YES | |
| 2025-04-15 | 0.95 | 112.0 | 0.46 | 0.81 | 87% | 145% | -0.23 | +0.13 | -0.31 | — | YES | |
| 2023-06-05 | 0.95 | 38.0 | 0.49 | 1.23 | 49% | 150% | -0.47 | +0.20 | -0.66 | YES | YES | |
| 2025-11-17 | 0.95 | 60.0 | 0.80 | 1.13 | 81% | 148% | -0.80 | +0.42 | -1.39 | — | YES | |
| 2023-05-22 | 0.96 | 46.2 | 0.66 | 1.11 | 64% | 150% | -0.11 | +0.21 | -0.23 | — | — | |
| 2023-12-21 | 0.98 | 28.0 | 0.70 | 1.18 | 84% | 150% | +0.44 | +0.54 | -0.98 | YES | YES | |
| 2023-01-30 | 0.98 | 58.5 | 0.43 | 1.18 | 81% | 138% | -0.44 | +0.06 | -0.50 | — | YES | |
| cohort low | 28.0 | 0.41 | 0.72 | 49% | 137% | -0.80 | +0.06 | -1.39 | ||||
| cohort median | 57.2 | 0.57 | 1.18 | 74% | 150% | +0.11 | +0.42 | -0.27 | ||||
| cohort high | 112.0 | 0.80 | 1.65 | 87% | 150% | +0.70 | +0.70 | -0.07 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 7/12 | 6/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
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