Sessions most like 2026-09-16, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: Whether the first push back toward the morning high is accepted above it or rejected, and whether volume picks up from its current light pace when that push comes. Whether price accepts below the cutoff level at any point is the other tell: the groups that did not continue mostly did, and the continuation groups mostly did not.
These are sessions that drove up off the open on lighter-than-typical participation, then spent the late morning giving part of the drive back, with the pullback into the cutoff close to the corpus norm. The matcher selected on that shape, so the drive-and-retrace is a property of the tool rather than a finding. Where today stands apart is participation: volume is lighter than in any session of the cohort and far below the corpus median. Price has also retraced further than most of the group, and did so quickly, since the high was printed only shortly before the cutoff.
Took out the morning high and kept going, with barely any trade below the cutoff price; the afternoon was a continuation of the morning.
Printed a new high but could not build on it; the afternoon went mostly sideways, and in the weakest case the poke above was followed by more trade below the cutoff than above it.
Traded meaningfully on either side of the cutoff price, in most cases through the morning low as well as the morning high; the afternoon was chop rather than a drive in either direction.
Touched neither the morning high nor the morning low; price drifted lower inside the range and the afternoon was a non-event.
Traded through the morning low as well as the morning high, and the upside run that followed dwarfed the morning drive and anything else in the cohort; treat it as the outlier of the group.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 — today | 0.00 | 43.5 | 0.40 | 0.57 | 42% | 51% | in progress | |||||
| 2023-12-13 | 0.47 | 26.5 | 0.26 | 0.66 | 50% | 56% | +2.12 | +2.25 | -0.29 | YES | YES | |
| 2025-04-29 | 0.57 | 128.5 | 0.33 | 0.78 | 24% | 51% | +0.14 | +0.25 | -0.14 | YES | — | |
| 2025-07-24 | 0.59 | 39.5 | 0.35 | 0.65 | 26% | 38% | -0.25 | +0.16 | -0.33 | YES | — | |
| 2024-10-22 | 0.60 | 45.0 | 0.42 | 0.71 | 31% | 68% | +0.29 | +0.55 | -0.11 | YES | — | |
| 2023-02-28 | 0.67 | 48.2 | 0.38 | 1.21 | 44% | 46% | -0.36 | +0.29 | -0.37 | YES | YES | |
| 2023-09-07 | 0.69 | 46.0 | 0.35 | 1.19 | 31% | 34% | +0.14 | +0.30 | -0.08 | YES | — | |
| 2024-07-05 | 0.70 | 35.0 | 0.49 | 0.80 | 19% | 40% | +0.52 | +0.64 | -0.01 | YES | — | |
| 2026-04-09 | 0.71 | 86.0 | 0.22 | 0.87 | 37% | 48% | +0.45 | +0.61 | -0.02 | YES | — | |
| 2025-12-30 | 0.72 | 48.0 | 0.39 | 0.60 | 28% | 53% | -0.27 | +0.01 | -0.33 | — | — | |
| 2024-02-21 | 0.75 | 38.0 | 0.31 | 0.75 | 56% | 64% | +0.36 | +0.43 | -0.61 | YES | YES | |
| 2024-07-16 | 0.75 | 35.0 | 0.44 | 1.14 | 61% | 66% | +0.38 | +0.48 | -0.37 | YES | — | |
| 2024-02-28 | 0.77 | 39.2 | 0.27 | 0.78 | 23% | 31% | -0.07 | +0.08 | -0.34 | — | — | |
| cohort low | 26.5 | 0.22 | 0.60 | 19% | 31% | -0.36 | +0.01 | -0.61 | ||||
| cohort median | 45.0 | 0.35 | 0.78 | 31% | 51% | +0.29 | +0.43 | -0.29 | ||||
| cohort high | 128.5 | 0.49 | 1.21 | 61% | 68% | +2.12 | +2.25 | -0.01 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 10/12 | 3/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
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