Sessions most like 2026-09-18, as of 11:30 ET
What would separate them: Whether the bounce can push through the morning high on this light tape, or stops at VWAP and rolls back toward the initial-balance low; and if the low does break, whether the break attracts volume or is bought back quickly as it was in the recovery camp.
The matcher picked sessions that set their high moments after the open, drove lower through the initial balance, and had recovered a meaningful chunk of that drive by late morning; the width of the balance is what the tool selects for, not a finding. Today sits at the further-retraced end of the group, with the bounce currently near its own high-water mark and price parked on VWAP. Volume is the outlier: lighter than the corpus median and lighter than most of the cohort, and the day's range so far is at the narrow end of the group.
The afternoon kept climbing, took out the pre-drive extreme, and the drive side was never seriously revisited; closes came in well above the cutoff.
The bounce ran out of buyers, the drive extreme gave way, and the session closed in the drive direction — in the worst case a long way further, with the retrace looking in hindsight like the pause before the bigger leg.
The drive extreme was taken out first, but the break did not hold: price reversed and clawed back most or more of the damage, with the close landing back near or above the cutoff level and the strongest of the group also printing a fresh extreme on the retrace side.
Neither morning extreme was tested again; the afternoon drifted, in opposite directions across the group, and settled without resolving the balance.
Written from the computed figures only, by a model that is not permitted to write a number — every count above is rendered from the same data as the table. Camps are one reading of these sessions, not a forecast: the matched features have been measured to add nothing over price position alone, so a cohort rate at this sample size is descriptive.
What kind of session these became — expansion one way, both ways, or balance — on the same four-way split the corpus study uses, where balance is a third of all sessions. Deliberately not a hit rate: which extreme gets taken largely restates where price already sat at the cutoff, and nobody holds to the close anyway. How far it ran, what it cost to sit through, and when it got there are the parts a trade is built on. n=12.
| plot | session | dist | ATR | IB /ATR | RVOL | retr now | retr max | to close | max up | max down | new high | new low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 — today | 0.00 | 39.2 | 0.80 | 0.83 | 46% | 49% | in progress | |||||
| 2024-07-01 | 0.49 | 38.2 | 0.88 | 1.17 | 54% | 55% | +0.31 | +0.46 | -0.15 | YES | — | |
| 2025-05-29 | 0.61 | 61.8 | 0.77 | 0.86 | 48% | 56% | -0.12 | +0.02 | -0.76 | — | YES | |
| 2023-05-10 | 0.67 | 41.0 | 0.76 | 1.36 | 47% | 51% | +0.23 | +0.48 | -0.75 | — | YES | |
| 2023-08-08 | 0.73 | 29.5 | 0.96 | 1.32 | 33% | 37% | +0.87 | +1.04 | -0.24 | YES | — | |
| 2024-12-09 | 0.73 | 41.0 | 0.42 | 0.99 | 38% | 42% | -0.27 | +0.16 | -0.41 | — | YES | |
| 2025-07-15 | 0.75 | 40.5 | 0.67 | 0.92 | 35% | 38% | -0.77 | +0.07 | -0.77 | — | YES | |
| 2024-06-13 | 0.77 | 38.2 | 0.73 | 0.96 | 32% | 33% | +0.32 | +0.56 | -0.41 | YES | YES | |
| 2025-03-12 | 0.77 | 101.2 | 0.52 | 1.35 | 38% | 42% | +0.20 | +0.50 | -0.03 | — | — | |
| 2025-12-15 | 0.78 | 71.2 | 0.95 | 0.85 | 53% | 58% | -0.29 | +0.02 | -0.48 | — | — | |
| 2025-07-22 | 0.82 | 39.5 | 0.77 | 0.90 | 51% | 71% | +0.30 | +0.51 | -0.16 | YES | — | |
| 2025-12-31 | 0.82 | 48.0 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 30% | 30% | -0.66 | +0.25 | -0.69 | — | YES | |
| 2024-05-23 | 0.85 | 35.5 | 1.01 | 1.41 | 39% | 43% | -1.31 | +0.27 | -1.67 | — | YES | |
| cohort low | 29.5 | 0.42 | 0.54 | 30% | 30% | -1.31 | +0.02 | -1.67 | ||||
| cohort median | 41.0 | 0.77 | 0.99 | 39% | 43% | +0.20 | +0.46 | -0.41 | ||||
| cohort high | 101.2 | 1.01 | 1.41 | 54% | 71% | +0.87 | +1.04 | -0.03 | ||||
| cohort hit rate | 4/12 | 7/12 | ||||||||||
| CORPUS median (n=967) | 50.5 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 34% | 60% | +0.05 | +0.30 | -0.28 | ||||
| CORPUS base rate | 56% | 50% | ||||||||||
All ATR-normalised and measured from the 11:30 cutoff. max up / max down are forward excursions after the cutoff — not the session extremes, which in most of these were already set. new high / new low ask whether the post-cutoff move exceeded the pre-cutoff extreme. Click any row to expand that session's chart to full width and jump to it; click again to collapse.
Matched on seven measures, all ATR-normalised and z-scored: distance from VWAP, magnitude of the high off the open, the clock time of that high, expansion of the price-VWAP gap across IB creation, how far VWAP itself was dragged, and how much of the drive has been retraced — both currently and at its deepest. The IB-gap and VWAP terms separate a day that trended from one that chopped to the same place; the retracement terms separate a day still pinned near its high from one that has round-tripped to the open. Ordered nearest first. Solid = up to 11:30, the part matched on. Faded = the rest of the day, the part to read. Shaded band left of the 09:30 marker is premarket from 06:00 ET. The y-axis is a shared ATR ruler with the session open at 0, identical on every tile, so magnitudes are directly comparable.
n=12. This is a case-inspection tool for rare behaviour — sort the tiles into camps by eye. It is not an inference tool, and a percentage taken off this many charts would not mean anything.
Charts rendered with Lightweight Charts™, Copyright © 2026 TradingView, Inc. (Apache-2.0).