Intraday snapshot · S&P 500 E-mini · Tue 15 Sep 2026
The morning primary triggered in the 10:15 period — through 7661.25, stopped 0.75 over the excursion's floor
Opened 7684.50 inside 14 Sep's value, printed the session high 7687.00 in the first bar, and sold 33.00 points to 7654.00 by 10:29. The morning primary triggered through 7661.25; its first objective, the 7645.00 overnight low, is nine points away.
Who holds territory
Sellers
The session high is the first bar's, the low is the latest, and no bar has closed above its open. Cumulative delta −3,193 has tracked price down 25.50 points from the open; the 10:00 bar's −1,854 was paid in full, 16.25 points.
Who is offside
Buyers above the market
14 Sep built 38.00 points of value, 7665.00–7703.00 around a 7693.00 POC, on +4,047 of net buying, and every tick of it is now overhead. Whoever bought the 7684.50 open is 25.50 points offside with the overnight low at 7645.00 still untested beneath them.
Opened inside yesterday's value, and the first bar's high is still the high
This is the thirteenth session of the excursion out of the 20–26 Aug balance at 7746.75–7787.50, and today's whole range, 7654.00 to 7687.00, sits under the window's 7721.50 value low, its low 0.75 above the excursion's 7653.25 floor.
The open printed 7684.50, inside 14 Sep's value and 8.25 under its close. The first bar reached 7687.00 — 0.75 over the 2 Sep swing low at 7686.25 — and that is still the high. The initial balance, a minute from complete at the cutoff, is 7687.00 to 7654.00: 33.00 points, built top-down.
29 Jul – 14 Sep · contains the 2 beside it, not today
12 sessions
developing
Bars are bucketed to approximate distribution shape only. Every labelled price — POC, VAH, VAL, and the levels at right — is the exact tick-level value, not a bucket midpoint.
The session is at the bottom of the ladder: 7654.00 to 7687.00, under the window's 7721.50 value low. Below the last there is the 10 Sep low at 7653.25, the overnight low at 7645.00, then the 28 May low at 7636.00 and nothing until 7599.25.
One direction: 9:45 and 10:00 did the work, 10:15 took the level
The 9:30 bar opened 7684.50, touched 7687.00 and closed 7682.50 on a delta of −2: a 16.75-point bar with nothing net in it. The 9:45 bar sold to 7674.50 and closed 7678.25, back under the 23 Jun complex high at 7681.00, on −1,340.
The 10:00 bar was the drive — 7678.50 to 7661.50, close 7662.25, on −1,854 — through the 7665.00 value low of 14 Sep and stopping 0.25 above that session's 7661.25 low.
Fourteen minutes into the 10:15 period the low is gone: 7654.00, under the 10 Sep value low at 7661.75 and 0.75 above the 10 Sep low at 7653.25, with the last at 7659.00. The 10:30 bar closes the initial balance; whether it extends the range below 7654.00 is the next snapshot's first question.
Delta −3,193, and price has agreed with all of it
The 9:30 bar's −2 bought no direction; the 9:45 bar's −1,340 moved price 4.25; the 10:00 bar's −1,854 moved it 16.25, the seller paid in full. There is no absorption in the three complete bars — no bar where delta ran negative and price refused to follow, and no bar where a buyer stepped in and moved it.
The overnight's −7,306 got Globex to 7645.00; the regular session has taken 25.50 points on less than half that and stopped nine above it. The break of 7661.25 sits inside the still-open 10:15 period, so what the seller did with it is not yet a full bar's evidence either way.
Primary live, nine points from its first objective
The morning primary — 14 Sep's low lost, into the overnight low and the May low — triggered in the 10:15 period at 7661.25. Objective 1 at 7645.00 is nine points under the last; objective 2 at 7636.00 has not been approached. Its 7703.00 invalidation was never in play: the session high, 7687.00, is 16.00 beneath it.
The alternate above 7703.00 has not triggered. The bear below 7645.00 has not triggered and goes live at the primary's first objective. Of the six levels the read called key, one has been crossed, from above, and not reclaimed.
Sellers hold it; the next full bar decides whether 7653.25 is a floor or a step
Sellers hold the tape and yesterday's value buyers are offside above it. The 10:30 bar closes the initial balance at the excursion's floor, and what it does with 7653.25 is the whole of the next half-hour.
What argued for the primary
- High first bar, low last; every bar closed under its open
- Yesterday's value and low both lost from inside
What argued against
- Regular-session delta −3,193 has yet to reach the overnight's 7645.00
What decided it
The trapped cohort is above and nothing has bid the floor.
The rest of the session
Through the overnight low, into the May low
PrimaryBelow 7654.00 the only reference is the 10 Sep low at 7653.25, then air to 7645.00. A seller that takes it has the window empty to 7636.00 and nothing of the composite's until 7599.25.
Failed break: yesterday's low reclaimed, back into its value
AlternateIf 7654.00 is the low, 7670.25 — the 14 May swing high, above 14 Sep's 7665.00 value low — is the reclaim. Targets are the session high and 14 Sep's value high; shorts from the 10:15 break are the fuel.
Through the May low, where the window is empty
BearBelow 7636.00 the composite has nothing until the 14 Jul low. This is the primary's continuation past its second objective, and it needs the seller the first hour has not yet had to produce.
What to watch
- 7653.25 10 Sep low — the excursion's floorHeld by 0.75 at the cutoff. The 10:30 bar closes the initial balance; a full bar through it on negative delta is the seller committing.
- 7645.00 Overnight low — primary objective 1Nine points under the last. Globex reached it on −7,306; the regular session has to reach it on its own.
- 7670.25 14 May swing high — the reclaimAbove 14 Sep's value low and its low. A close over it turns the 10:15 break into a failed auction with shorts under it.
What this is, and what it is not
This is a context gauge — the climate a discretionary decision gets made inside. It is not a trigger, a signal, or a trade.
Mechanical order-flow entry signals do not survive out-of-sample testing, and nothing here should be treated as one. The value of a read like this is subtractive: it tells you which levels matter, which side is already committed, and when to stand down — not when to click.
Every figure above is computed rather than estimated. The synthesis is machine-written from a fixed analytical framework and reviewed before publication — how these are made. Framework v1.5 (fb07b9e+)