Intraday snapshot · S&P 500 E-mini · Tue 15 Sep 2026
Third lift to Monday's low sold at 7662.00; delta made a new session low at 14:30 with price 10.00 off the floor
The 14:00 bar reached 7662.00 and closed 7660.25 — the first close above 7659.25 since 10:45 — and the next two bars sold it back to 7654.00. Delta is at −11,118 with price 12.00 above 7643.50. One hour left: the shelf at 7648.00–7655.00 breaks or pays.
Who holds territory
Sellers
Value has built under Monday's 7665.00 value low all day, and that price has not printed since the 10:15 bar. The 14:00 close at 7660.25 was the buyers' best and lasted one bar: 14:15 sold −558, 14:30 sold −957 back to 7654.00. Control stays with sellers until a bar closes above 7662.75.
Who is offside
Buyers above the market
Monday's value buyers at 7665.00–7703.00 have not seen their entry since 10:15. Today's responsive buyers — +1,603 at 11:00, +1,478 at 13:30 — have one close above 7660.00 to show for it and a 12.00 cushion over 7643.50 that a single bar could take.
Opened at the high, sold to the initial balance low
This is the 13th session of the excursion out of the 20–26 Aug balance at 7722.75–7787.75; today's 7643.50–7687.00 range sits entirely under the excursion's 7721.50 value low. The 9:30 bar set the high, 7687.00; 9:45 and 10:00 sold −3,194 between them to 7661.50. The initial balance settled 7687.00–7654.00 and, five and a half hours in, still holds 76% of the range: 10.50 of extension below, none above.
29 Jul – 14 Sep · contains the 2 beside it, not today
12 sessions
developing
Bars are bucketed to approximate distribution shape only. Every labelled price — POC, VAH, VAL, and the levels at right — is the exact tick-level value, not a bucket midpoint.
Today's value, 7647.25–7660.00 around a 7653.75 POC, sits entirely under Monday's 7665.00 value low, which has not printed since 10:15. Above, the ladder is untouched since 10:00; below, 7636.00 is the first reference.
A third lift to 7662.00, sold in two bars; the shelf at 7648.00 holds a third push
Extension came 10:30–10:45, −5,669 across the two bars for 7643.50, and the day has rotated over it since: 7648.00–7662.75 from 11:00 on.
The afternoon added a third lift. The 13:30 bar bought +1,478, the largest buy bar since 11:00, and moved the close 3.00, to 7653.75. The 14:00 bar reached 7662.00, 0.75 under 12:45's high, and closed 7660.25 — the first close above 7659.25 since 10:45, by 1.00, on −62 delta. It lasted one bar: 14:15 closed 7659.25 on −558, and 14:30 sold −957 to 7653.50, closing 7654.00. So far in the 14:45 period the low is 7649.50, the lowest since 13:15, and price is 7655.50. Three lifts to 7661.00–7662.75, three sold; 7665.00 has not printed since 10:15.
Third delta low of the afternoon, each one bought higher
Cumulative delta made its third session low at 14:30: −11,118, after −10,735 at 13:00 and −9,246 at 10:45. Price at each: 7643.50, 7652.25, 7653.50. Sellers are paying more for less — from 11:30's −7,425 they have spent −3,504 net and moved price 1.75, 7657.25 to 7655.50. That is absorption at 7648.00–7655.00, and it has now held three hours.
It has bought nothing. The absorbers' best close is 14:00's 7660.25, and the two bars after it were sold. Monday's buyers above 7665.00 are unrelieved; the buyers at today's floor hold a 12.00 cushion, not a profit.
Primary at its first objective for four hours; nothing since has triggered either way
The morning primary triggered at 10:15 and took its 7645.00 first objective at 10:45; 7636.00 is untested by 7.50 four and a quarter hours later. Its bear branch traded through 7645.00 with no follow-through, and its 7665.00 invalidation survives — 14:00 stopped 3.00 under. The alternate never came within 24 points of 7703.00. Of the 13:29 snapshot's branches, none has triggered: the primary's 7639.50 is untouched, the low since being 7649.50; the alternate's and the bear probe's 7665.00 was missed by 3.00 at 14:00.
Sellers hold value; buyers hold a floor that three lifts have not paid for
Sellers hold value under Monday's; buyers hold 7643.50. One hour left: the floor breaks or the absorbers get paid.
What argued for the primary
- Delta −11,118 at a session low; every lift sold
- Value 7647.25–7660.00, under Monday's 7665.00
- 7665.00 unprinted since 10:15
What argued against
- −3,504 since 11:30 bought 1.75 points
- First close over 7659.25 came at 14:00
What decided it
Three lifts have not closed over 7662.75; a shelf that cannot lift breaks late.
The rest of the session
Through 7643.50 into the close
PrimaryA print under the floor after four and a quarter hours takes the absorbers' cushion and the morning read's 7645.00 objective with it. 7636.00 is 7.50 beneath and untested since 28 May; below it, 7631.25, then nothing to 7599.25.
Acceptance over Monday's value low
AlternateThrough 7666.00 the absorbers are paid, Monday's value buyers are back at flat and the morning bear is invalidated. 10 Sep's 7677.25 value high is first; the 7687.00 initial balance top has not printed since 9:30.
A squeeze through 7666.00 that fails into the close
BearPrice prints through 7666.00 first, fills the late buyers, then loses 7643.50 with them offside — the fuel the floor has lacked since 10:45. Same objectives as the primary by the worse route.
What to watch
- 7643.50 The floorFour and a quarter hours, three pushes, nothing under. A full bar through it starts the primary; a sweep bought back is the buyers' best case.
- 7662.75 The sold highs12:45 and 14:00 stopped 0.75 apart. A close above ends three hours of capped lifts and puts 7666.00 in play.
- 7665.00 Monday's value lowUnprinted since 10:15; the morning bear's invalidation. Through it, Monday's buyers are flat and the alternate is live.
What this is, and what it is not
This is a context gauge — the climate a discretionary decision gets made inside. It is not a trigger, a signal, or a trade.
Mechanical order-flow entry signals do not survive out-of-sample testing, and nothing here should be treated as one. The value of a read like this is subtractive: it tells you which levels matter, which side is already committed, and when to stand down — not when to click.
Every figure above is computed rather than estimated. The synthesis is machine-written from a fixed analytical framework and reviewed before publication — how these are made. Framework v1.5 (fb07b9e+)