Intraday snapshot · S&P 500 E-mini · Wed 16 Sep 2026
Bought to yesterday's high, sold back to the initial-balance low
The overnight gap held its 20.5 points into the open, but two pushes to 7686.5 stopped under yesterday's 7687 high and the first hour closed at its low with the buyers' delta still on the tape.
Who holds territory
Sellers, by absorption
Cumulative delta is +1,713 and price is at the low end of the range. Buyers were the aggressors for the whole first hour and have nothing to show for it: both pushes to 7686.5 were sold back within a bar. Sellers have not pressed yet; they have not had to.
Who is offside
This morning's buyers
The 9:45 bar bought 2,301 net into 7686.5; those longs are 16 points under water with the 7669 initial-balance low the only structure beneath them. Yesterday's sellers at 7657.25 remain 13.5 offside but were never squeezed — the rally stopped a half-point short of their 7687 stop.
Gap held, then a 17.5-point first hour inside Monday's value
This is the fourteenth session of the excursion out of the 20–26 Aug balance at 7722.75–7787.75, and today's 7669–7686.5 range sits entirely below that balance and below the composite value low at 7720.
After a 7656 close ES opened at 7676.5, 20.5 higher, and the 9:30 bar dipped to 7669 on +540 delta — sellers pressed the open and the bid held. The initial balance settled at 7669–7686.5, 17.5 points, half of yesterday's 33, entirely inside Monday's 7665–7703 value and above yesterday's 7649–7659.
29 Jul – 15 Sep · contains the 2 beside it, not today
13 sessions
developing
Bars are bucketed to approximate distribution shape only. Every labelled price — POC, VAH, VAL, and the levels at right — is the exact tick-level value, not a bucket midpoint.
The first hour built value at 7670.75–7680.25 around a 7676.75 control, inside Monday's 7665–7703 value and above yesterday's 7649–7659. Both edges of the range have been tested twice; neither has extended.
One drive at 9:45, retested at 10:00, given back by 10:29
The 9:45 bar was the session's one drive: 7669.5 to 7686.5, closing 7684.25 on +2,301 delta, the heaviest bar of the day. It stopped a half-point under yesterday's 7687 high and 2.75 under the 7689.25 overnight high, the only print above 7687 in eighteen hours.
The 10:00 bar retested 7686.5 exactly, failed, and closed 7677.5 on −183 — the second look drew no new buying. The 10:15 bar, fourteen minutes in at the cutoff, traded 7679.25 to 7669.5 and was last at 7670.75, a half-point above the initial-balance low, on −945 so far.
No range extension either way. The initial balance has been rotated end to end: high made at 9:45, retested at 10:00; low made at 9:30, revisited at 10:29.
Buyers net aggressive all hour, price at the low: absorption
Cumulative delta peaked at +2,841 at the 9:45 close and reads +1,713 at the cutoff. Buyers have been net aggressive all session and price is 16 points under where their aggression peaked. That is absorption, not selling pressure: the sellers who capped 7686.5 twice were passive, and the two bars that took price back to 7670.75 carried a combined −1,128 against the +2,841 that built the high. Price has fully retraced a rally the delta has retraced only 40 percent of.
The trapped cohort is this morning's, not yesterday's. Yesterday's 14,433 net sold at 7657.25 remain 13.5 points offside but were never forced — 7687 held.
Nothing triggered; the read's 7665 is 5.75 away
Nothing has triggered. The 08:05 primary needs < 7665, 5.75 below the cutoff price, and the 7669 initial-balance low is the only structure between. The alternate needs > 7703; it was never closer than 16.5 points, and its own 7687 invalidation is the level that stopped both pushes. The bear's 7643.5 is 27 points away.
The read's verdict — sellers in control, sellers nearest offside — is untested, but the first hour leans its way: the gap has been bought and not extended.
Sellers by absorption; the morning's buyers under water
Sellers hold control by absorption, and the cohort under water is this morning's, bought at 7686.5.
What argued for the primary
- Both pushes to 7686.5 rejected under 7687 and the 7689.25 overnight high
- +2,841 bought at the high; price back at the initial-balance low
- 17.5-point initial balance inside Monday's value, no extension
What argued against
- Cumulative delta still +1,713; no bar has sold more than 945
- The 7658.75 overnight low and 7665 both untouched
What decided it
The only resolved fact is that buying at 7686.5 was absorbed; 7665 decides whether it matters.
The rest of the session
Initial-balance low fails and yesterday's value is revisited
PrimaryBelow 7669 the 9:45 buyers sell out, 7665 goes with them, and a close under yesterday's 7659 value high puts price back where yesterday's 14,433 net sold are flat: the 7657.25 control, then the 7649 value low.
Third push clears 7687 and the overnight high; yesterday's sellers cover
AlternateAcceptance above 7689.25 puts yesterday's 14,433 net sold 30 points offside with no volume to lean on until Monday's 7703 value high. The composite value low at 7720 is the second stop.
Through yesterday's low into the May low
BearYesterday's 7643.5 low gives way and the 28 May low at 7636 is tested for the first time; below it the profile is empty to 7599.25.
What to watch
- 7665.00 Monday's value low, four points under the 7669 initial-balance lowA close below both is the first thing today that resolves anything: the 08:05 primary fires and the 9:45 buyers are out.
- 7687.00 Yesterday's high, approached twice to 7686.5A third push that holds above 7689.25 is the squeeze the alternate describes; another rejection confirms the buyers as the trapped cohort.
- 7657.25 Yesterday's control, 14,433 net soldPrice returning here is yesterday's sellers back to flat. A bid at it is their reload; through it is the bear's road to 7643.5.
What this is, and what it is not
This is a context gauge — the climate a discretionary decision gets made inside. It is not a trigger, a signal, or a trade.
Mechanical order-flow entry signals do not survive out-of-sample testing, and nothing here should be treated as one. The value of a read like this is subtractive: it tells you which levels matter, which side is already committed, and when to stand down — not when to click.
Every figure above is computed rather than estimated. The synthesis is machine-written from a fixed analytical framework and reviewed before publication — how these are made. Framework v1.5 (fb07b9e+)