Intraday snapshot · S&P 500 E-mini · Wed 16 Sep 2026
Third push cleared yesterday's high and held; 7699 stopped under Monday's value high
The 11:00 bar took out 7686.5 and yesterday's 7687 high on the third attempt, the pullback into the initial balance drew no sellers, and the 11:45 period printed 7699 — two under yesterday's 7701 full-session high, four under the 08:05 alternate's 7703 trigger.
Who holds territory
Buyers, by extension
The third push did what the first two could not: 7687 went at 11:00 on +721, a third of the +2,301 that was absorbed at 9:45, and price travelled further. The passive seller who capped 7686.5 twice had stopped offering. The 11:15 and 11:30 bars then held 7682–7690.5 on +2 and −35 — a pullback nobody sold.
Who is offside
Yesterday's sellers, and this morning's cappers
Yesterday's 14,433 net sold at 7657.25 are 33 points under the market and their 7687 stop has printed. The sellers who absorbed +2,841 at 7686.5 in the first hour are offside by less but from a worse place. Nobody long is under water: the day's low is 7669 and the cumulative delta has never been negative.
Gap held, 17.5-point first hour inside Monday's value
This is the fourteenth session of the excursion out of the 20–26 Aug balance at 7722.75–7787.75, and today's 7669–7699 range sits entirely under that balance and under the composite value low at 7720.
ES opened 7676.5 against a 7656 close, dipped to 7669 in the 9:30 bar on +540, and drove to 7686.5 at 9:45 on +2,301. The initial balance settled at 7669–7686.5, 17.5 points, inside Monday's 7665–7703 value and above yesterday's 7649–7659.
29 Jul – 15 Sep · contains the 2 beside it, not today
5 sessions
13 sessions
developing
Bars are bucketed to approximate distribution shape only. Every labelled price — POC, VAH, VAL, and the levels at right — is the exact tick-level value, not a bucket midpoint.
Today's value so far is 7675.75–7692.75 around a 7687 control — yesterday's high is today's point of control. The 11:00 extension took the range to 7699, into the 7699.75–7703 cluster, and the delta is at its high with the price.
Given back to 7669.5, then three bars up and through 7687 at 11:00
The 10:00 and 10:15 bars gave the drive back to 7669.5, a half-point off the low. From there three bars climbed: 10:30 closed 7680.75 on +733, 10:45 closed 7684.25 on +263, and 11:00 opened 7684.5, cleared 7686.5, yesterday's 7687 and the 7689.25 overnight high in one bar, and closed 7689.75 on +721 — the first range extension of the day.
The 11:15 and 11:30 bars pulled back to 7685.25 and 7682 and closed 7686 and 7688 on +2 and −35: the dip into the initial balance found no sellers and needed no new buyers. The 11:45 period opened 7687.75 and has printed 7699, 12.5 above the balance, last 7690.5. That high stopped 0.75 under the 16 Jul 7699.75 swing high, two under yesterday's 7701 full-session high, four under Monday's 7703 value high.
Delta at its high with price at the high; the 10:29 trapped call reversed
Cumulative delta peaked at +2,841 at 9:45, was down to +1,798 at 10:15 with price at 7671.75, and has climbed since: +3,515 at 11:00, +3,482 at 11:30, +4,262 so far in the 11:45 period. It is at its session high with price four points under the session high. Delta and price agree.
The 10:29 snapshot read the first hour as absorption and named the 9:45 buyers the trapped cohort. The 11:00 bar resolved it the other way: +721 of aggression moved price through a level +2,301 could not, so the passive seller who capped 7686.5 twice was gone. Those cappers, and yesterday's 14,433 net sold at 7657.25 whose 7687 stop has printed, are the offside cohorts. No bar today has sold more than 860.
Nothing triggered; the 08:05 alternate is the live branch, 12.5 away
Nothing in the 08:05 read has triggered. The primary's 7665 has never been closer than four points; the bear's 7643.5 is 55.5 away. The alternate needs > 7703 and has come within four at 7699, and its 7687 invalidation is now beneath price — it is the live branch. The read's verdict, sellers in control, has two and a half hours above yesterday's close, a 12.5-point extension up and a positive delta throughout against it, and no bar of selling for it.
Buyers by extension; 7703 is the door
Buyers hold the day by extension; yesterday's sellers and this morning's cappers are offside; 7703 decides whether they are squeezed or merely stopped.
What argued for the primary
- 7687 cleared on the third push and the pullback held on flat delta
- Delta +4,262 at its high with price at the high
What argued against
- 7699 stopped under the untested 7699.75, 7701 and 7703 cluster
- Value so far tops at 7692.75; the extension is 12.5 points, not yet accepted
What decided it
Delta confirms price; the cluster above is the only thing unresolved.
The rest of the session
Accepted above Monday's value high; yesterday's sellers cover to the composite value low
PrimaryThrough 7703 there is no session value until the composite value low at 7720; Friday's 7732.75 value low is next. Yesterday's 14,433 net sold have had their 7687 stop printed and 7703 is where they cover in size. This is the 08:05 alternate.
Extension fails; back into the first hour's value
AlternateA close under today's 7675.75 value low takes the 11:00 extension back and leaves 7699 as a tail under the cluster. The 7669 initial-balance low and Monday's 7665 value low — the 08:05 primary trigger — are the objectives.
Through Monday's value low, back to yesterday's sellers
BearBelow 7665 the gap is filled and yesterday's 14,433 net sold at 7657.25 get back to flat; the 7649 value low is the second stop. This is the 08:05 primary, and it needs the whole day's delta to be reversed first.
What to watch
- 7703.00 Monday's value high; the 08:05 alternate trigger, four off the 11:45 highAcceptance above it is the squeeze the morning read described. A rejection at the 7699–7703 cluster leaves an upper tail on a day that has otherwise built value higher.
- 7687.00 Yesterday's high, cleared at 11:00 and now today's controlThe extension's floor. Holding it keeps yesterday's sellers offside; a close back under it says the third push was a stop run and the 10:29 absorption read stands.
- 7665.00 Monday's value low, the 08:05 primary trigger; never within fourThe only thing that revives the morning read's sellers-in-control verdict today. Between it and last are the 7669 initial-balance low and today's 7675.75 value low.
What this is, and what it is not
This is a context gauge — the climate a discretionary decision gets made inside. It is not a trigger, a signal, or a trade.
Mechanical order-flow entry signals do not survive out-of-sample testing, and nothing here should be treated as one. The value of a read like this is subtractive: it tells you which levels matter, which side is already committed, and when to stand down — not when to click.
Every figure above is computed rather than estimated. The synthesis is machine-written from a fixed analytical framework and reviewed before publication — how these are made. Framework v1.5 (fb07b9e+)