Intraday snapshot · S&P 500 E-mini · Wed 16 Sep 2026
Sold through 7665, 7643.5 and the May low in two bars; 7618.5 is a new low for the excursion
The fourth push over yesterday's high failed at 7694.25 in the 14:00 bar and the initial-balance low went the same bar. The 14:30 bar sold 7683.25 to 7641 on −3,693, and so far in the 14:45 period price has traded 7618.5, 100 points under the composite's value low.
Who holds territory
Sellers, since 14:00
A 50-point extension below a 17.5-point initial balance, made in the last hour with delta agreeing, through three of the morning read's levels in one bar. Every print since 14:30 is under yesterday's 7643.5 low; the 7636 May low the read called untested is broken.
Who is offside
Today's buyers, 7670–7699
The +4,229 of morning buying between the 7669 initial-balance low and 7699 is 50 points offside, and the buyers of the 14:30 recovery to 7671.25 own the last print above the break. Yesterday's 14,433 net sold at 7657.25, the cohort the morning read called nearest offside, is 33 points onside.
The initial balance is now 50 points overhead
This is the fourteenth session of the excursion out of the 20–26 Aug balance (7722.75–7787.75), and the 14:45 period's 7618.5 is a new low for it, 100 points under the composite's 7720 value low. The gap open at 7676.5 and the 7669–7686.5 initial balance now sit 45 to 60 points above last; the whole of today's value, 7669.75–7690.5 around a 7680 control, was built before the break and has nothing under it.
29 Jul – 15 Sep · contains the 2 beside it, not today
5 sessions
13 sessions
developing
Bars are bucketed to approximate distribution shape only. Every labelled price — POC, VAH, VAL, and the levels at right — is the exact tick-level value, not a bucket midpoint.
Every level between 7703 and 7636 has been traded today. Above last sit the morning's value and four cohorts of buyers; below sits nothing until the 14 Jul low at 7599.25.
14:00 failed at 7694.25; 14:30 broke
The 14:00 bar made the fourth push over yesterday's 7687 high, reached 7694.25 and failed; the same bar broke the initial-balance low at 7669 for the first time, to 7668.75, on −1,305. The 14:15 bar held 7669.25 and closed 7678 on −1,929. The 14:30 bar broke: 7683.25 to 7641 on −3,693, through Monday's 7665 value low, yesterday's 7649 value low and its 7643.5 session low in one bar, then recovered to close 7671.25 — the first break was bought back. So far in the 14:45 period the buy-back failed at 7677.25 and price has gone through the 7636 May low to 7618.5, last 7623.75. Range extension below is 50.5 against a 17.5-point initial balance and 12.5 above.
Delta bled for two hours, then price agreed
Cumulative delta peaked at +4,229 at 12:00 and bled to +3,336 by 13:45 while price held 7674–7684 — 900 contracts of net selling absorbed without a lower low, the tell the 13:29 headline could not yet resolve. Then price agreed: +2,031 at 14:00, +102 at 14:15, −3,591 at 14:30, −4,721 so far. The morning's buying from 7670 to 7699 is 50 points offside; the 14:30 recovery to 7671.25 added a second cohort who own the last print above the break. Yesterday's 14,433 net sold at 7657.25 is 33 points onside.
Primary done, bear live, alternate never triggered
The primary triggered at 14:30 under 7665 and reached both objectives, 7649 and 7636, within two bars. The bear triggered under 7643.5 the same bar; its first objective at 7636 is done, its second, the 14 Jul low at 7599.25, is open, and its invalidation above 7665 has not been touched since. The alternate never triggered: 7703 was never approached after 7699 at 11:45. The 28 May low the morning read called untested is tested and broken.
Sellers, with the day's value overhead
Sellers hold the session: a 50-point extension below a 17.5-point balance, made in the last hour with delta agreeing. Offside are today's buyers from 7670 to 7699 and the 14:30 dip-buyers at 7641–7671.
What argued for the primary
- Both morning objectives hit; delta flipped with price at 14:30.
What argued against
- 7641–7671 was bought once; 7618.5 is one 14-minute period.
What decided it
Extension below is three times the initial balance, with all of today's value overhead.
The rest of the session
Through the session low into the empty stretch toward the July low
PrimaryNo value exists between 7636 and 7599.25; a break of 7618.5 has nothing to lean on until the 14 Jul low. Invalidated only if yesterday's 7643.5 low is reclaimed.
Yesterday's low reclaimed; the break was a late sweep
AlternateReclaiming 7643.5 puts price back inside yesterday's range with the 7657.25 control and Monday's 7665 value low as the magnets, and leaves 7618.5 as excess under two sessions' lows.
Through the July low into the summer range
BearUnder 7599.25 the composite thins toward the cluster of July lows; a close there is the excursion's largest range and its first value entirely below the composite. Invalidated if the May low is reclaimed.
What to watch
- 7618.50 Session low, 14:45 periodA lower low in the last hour opens the stretch to 7599.25; a hold makes this the second poor low under 7643.5 in two sessions.
- 7643.50 Yesterday's low, now the sellers' lineThe primary's invalidation and the alternate's trigger. A close back above it turns the break into a late-day sweep.
- 7599.25 14 Jul low, the bear's second objectiveThe only reference between the session low and the July cluster at 7547.25. First touch since the excursion began.
What this is, and what it is not
This is a context gauge — the climate a discretionary decision gets made inside. It is not a trigger, a signal, or a trade.
Mechanical order-flow entry signals do not survive out-of-sample testing, and nothing here should be treated as one. The value of a read like this is subtractive: it tells you which levels matter, which side is already committed, and when to stand down — not when to click.
Every figure above is computed rather than estimated. The synthesis is machine-written from a fixed analytical framework and reviewed before publication — how these are made. Framework v1.5 (fb07b9e+)