Intraday snapshot · S&P 500 E-mini · Fri 18 Sep 2026
The IB low broke in the 12:15 bar and went exactly to the overnight low: 7675 was bought, and whoever sold the break is offside
The initial balance gave on its sixth test, in the 12:15 bar. The push stopped at 7675, the overnight low, and was met by buyers: the bar closed back on the IB low. Cumulative delta is now at a session high while price sits 20 points under the open.
Who holds territory
Sellers, on territory
No 15-minute bar has closed above yesterday's value low since 9:45, the open at 7710 is 20 points overhead, and the 11:30 bar sold the only rally of the day. What sellers do not have is a range extension. The one attempt failed inside its own bar.
Who is offside
The 12:15 sellers
Whoever sold the break under 7683.25 got 8 points of follow-through, to 7675, then a close back on the IB low with 1,623 of net buying against them. They are 15 points offside at 7690.5. The buyers who paid about 7695 between 10:45 and 11:15 are still under water too, by 5.
Opened on the balance's value high and was rejected
This is the seventh session against the 10–17 Sep balance, and today has traded under the composite's 7708 value low in every bar but its first.
The open at 7710 went straight into the balance's 7711.75 value high and was turned back. The 9:30 bar made the session high at 7714.5 and closed at 7705. The next two bars sold to 7684, and the initial balance settled at 7683.25–7714.5, a range of 31.25, with the open in its top quarter.
29 Jul – 17 Sep · contains the 2 beside it, not today
5 sessions
6 sessions
developing
Bars are bucketed to approximate distribution shape only. Every labelled price — POC, VAH, VAL, and the levels at right — is the exact tick-level value, not a bucket midpoint.
Price at 7690.5 sits between yesterday's 7694.25 value low and the session low at 7675, which is also the overnight low. Above, the balance's 7711.75 value high and the week's 7722.25 high are the first two objectives of a squeeze. Below, Monday's 7665 value low is the next reference.
The sixth test broke the IB low, ran to the overnight low, and came straight back
The IB low held five tests through noon and gave on the sixth. The 12:15 bar broke 7683.25 and ran to 7675, the overnight low to the tick. That is the day's only range extension, 8.25 points, and it lasted minutes: the bar closed at 7683.25, back on the IB low.
The 12:30 and 12:45 bars lifted price to 7689.75 and the 1:00 bar held there. So far in the 1:15 period price has reached 7692. Nothing has been attempted above. The 11:30 bar's 7697 high is still the ceiling since the open, and yesterday's 7694.25 value low sits just over the market. The IB high at 7714.5 has not been approached since the first bar. The session low and the overnight low are now the same price, tested once from inside.
Buyers hold the flow, sellers hold the price
Cumulative delta is at its session high of +5,873 and price is 20 points below the open. The break in the 12:15 bar was met by buyers: +1,623 on the bar that made the low. Every full bar since has been net positive, adding about 4,400 from the 11:45 close, and that bought 5 points, from 7685.25 to 7690.5.
Buyers keep paying up and sellers keep filling them, as they did between 10:45 and 11:15 when 4,000 net produced 10 points and was sold in one bar. The difference this time is where it happened. Buying at a fresh low that closes back inside the IB is responsive, and the sellers it stopped are the ones offside. Whether the absorbers above 7694.25 are still there is the open question, and the reason the primary needs a close over it.
Alternate reached its first objective; the bear was pierced, never closed
The 08:05 primary is dead. The alternate triggered under 7694.25 without its 7722.25 probe. It reached its first objective at 7680.50 in the 12:15 bar and traded 5.50 points past it. The bear's trigger at 7680.50 was traded through, but no bar has closed under it and its 7665 objective was never approached. Both remain live: the alternate invalidates above 7739.25, the bear above 7722.25. Yesterday's value low at 7694.25 is now the line the afternoon turns on, and price is 3.75 under it.
Sellers on territory, buyers on flow, and one group clearly offside
Sellers hold the territory and buyers hold the flow. The 12:15 sellers are 15 points offside; a close over 7694.25 squeezes them. A trade back under 7675 says the absorption was real.
What argued for the primary
- Break to 7675 bought within its own bar
- Cum delta at a session high with the 12:15 sellers offside
What argued against
- No close above 7694.25 since 9:45
- 4,400 net buying since 11:45 moved price 5 points
What decided it
A failed extension at a known low outranks absorption that has not produced a lower low.
The rest of the session
The failed extension rotates to the top of the IB
PrimaryThe 12:15 sellers cover through yesterday's value low and the 7697 bounce high. First target is the balance's 7711.75 value high where the open was rejected, then the week's high. Fails if yesterday's 7680.50 low gives way again.
Sweep the bounce high, then the absorbers reload
AlternatePrice clears 7697 and yesterday's value low, traps the afternoon buyers, and is sold the way the 11:30 bar sold it. The 12:15 low goes on the second visit and the morning alternate's second objective at 7665 comes into play.
7675 gives way without a reclaim first
BearNo sweep. Price fails under 7694.25 again, the buyers who bought the 12:15 low give up, and the overnight low goes on its second test. Objectives are Monday's value low and Tuesday's value low, the morning bear's targets.
What to watch
- 7694.25 Yesterday's value lowNo bar has closed above it since 9:45. The primary trigger sits above it because a close over it puts the 12:15 sellers on the wrong side for good.
- 7675.00 Overnight and session lowOne test, bought. A second visit that does not bounce inside the bar says the responsive buyers are done and the alternate is running.
- 7711.75 Balance value highWhere the open was rejected. The first objective for any squeeze and the alternate's invalidation.
What this is, and what it is not
This is a context gauge — the climate a discretionary decision gets made inside. It is not a trigger, a signal, or a trade.
Mechanical order-flow entry signals do not survive out-of-sample testing, and nothing here should be treated as one. The value of a read like this is subtractive: it tells you which levels matter, which side is already committed, and when to stand down — not when to click.
Every figure above is computed rather than estimated. The synthesis is machine-written from a fixed analytical framework and reviewed before publication — how these are made. Framework v1.5 (fb07b9e+)