Intraday snapshot · S&P 500 E-mini · Wed 23 Sep 2026
Sellers took 7762.50 while buyers kept paying up
The 08:05 bear branch reached its first objective in the 13:00 bar. Buyers have been net aggressive since 10:15, and price has fallen 30 points through them.
Who holds territory
Sellers
Sellers have taken every level they tested today. Monday's 7793.75 value low and the 7777.75 floor both broke, and the 13:00 bar reached 7758.75. They did it against positive delta, which means they are selling passively and in size.
Who is offside
Today's buyers
Whoever bought between 10:15 and 12:15 is underwater. They put up nearly 12,000 contracts of net buying off the 10:00 low, and price now sits below most of it. Their stops are under 7758.75; their relief is back above 7777.75.
Sellers owned the open
This is the fourth session of the excursion above the 10–17 Sep balance, and even today's low holds above that balance's 7749.75 high. Sellers owned the open. The first three bars fell from 7826.25 to 7787.50 on about 5,200 contracts of net selling. Buyers answered in the 10:15 bar with 3,205 contracts, after it printed 7778.00. That left a 48-point initial balance, most of it below yesterday's 7810.50 low.
29 Jul – 22 Sep · contains the 2 beside it, not today
6 sessions
3 sessions
developing
Bars are bucketed to approximate distribution shape only. Every labelled price — POC, VAH, VAL, and the levels at right — is the exact tick-level value, not a bucket midpoint.
Today has traded from above yesterday's low to beneath the 20 Aug balance's value low. The 7777.75 floor is now overhead.
One reclaim attempt, then a staircase lower
The 10:45 bar was the buyers' best shot. It lifted price to 7800.75 on 4,457 contracts. By the 11:00 close, Monday's 7793.75 value low was lost again, and highs have stepped lower since.
The 11:45 bar broke the initial balance low and the 7777.75 floor, then extension stalled for three bars near 7775. The real break came at 12:30, with four straight lower closes. The 13:00 bar reached 7758.75, 19 points of downside extension, clearing the morning read's 7762.50 objective.
So far in the 13:15 period price has bounced to 7774.00, still under the old floor. Nothing has traded above the opening bar's 7826.25.
Buying that moved nothing
Cumulative delta bottomed at −5,238 in the 10:00 bar and turned positive by 10:45. It then climbed to +6,600 by 12:15 while price fell another 19 points. That is absorption: the buyers lifting offers from 10:15 on met resting sellers who never let them through 7800.75.
When price finally broke at 12:30, delta turned negative for three bars and gave back about 2,300 contracts. The session is still net 5,653 to buyers, and most of that position is now underwater.
The bear branch is paying
The 08:05 primary never got going: its 7810.50 probe printed in the second bar, but price never came near the 7839.00 trigger. Its 7793.75 invalidation broke in the first hour, and the alternate died at the open. The bear branch triggered below 7793.75 and reached its first objective at 7762.50. Objective 2 at 7746.75 is 20 points below last. Its 7810.50 invalidation is 43 points away and untouched since 9:45.
Sellers in control, today's buyers offside
Sellers control. They absorbed nearly 12,000 contracts of net buying and still made a new low. The buyers who lifted from 10:15 to 12:15 are offside above 7777.75.
What argued for the primary
- Highs have stepped lower since 10:45
- Delta rose while price fell
What argued against
- The 13:15 bounce came on buying
- Today's low holds above 7749.75
What decided it
Absorption outranks one partial bar.
The rest of the session
Sellers finish the job
PrimaryThe absorption resolves lower. Acceptance under 7755.75 takes out today's low and opens the 08:05 read's second objective.
The absorbed buyers get paid
AlternateA move back above the initial balance low turns the extension into a failed auction. Today's buyers get back to even, and rotation targets the 20 Aug balance high, then Monday's value low.
The balance high gives way
BearLosing 7746.75 puts price back on top of the 10–17 Sep balance and ends the excursion's cushion. The 24 Aug swing low comes first, then the balance's value high.
What to watch
- 7777.75 The floor, now overheadBuyers need it back. Acceptance above makes today's low a failed extension.
- 7762.50 First objective, now the pivotHolding above it keeps the 13:15 bounce alive. Losing it again points at 7746.75.
- 7746.75 Second bear objectiveThe morning read's last bear target, three points under the 10–17 Sep balance high.
What this is, and what it is not
This is a context gauge — the climate a discretionary decision gets made inside. It is not a trigger, a signal, or a trade.
Mechanical order-flow entry signals do not survive out-of-sample testing, and nothing here should be treated as one. The value of a read like this is subtractive: it tells you which levels matter, which side is already committed, and when to stand down — not when to click.
Every figure above is computed rather than estimated. The synthesis is machine-written from a fixed analytical framework and reviewed before publication — how these are made. Framework v1.5 (d485b3a+)